Man City vs Newcastle Picks and Predictions: City Stay Within Striking Distance

Man City aren't in control of the title race but they can keep up with the Gunners' pace with three points Saturday. Find out how their late kickoff will play out against Newcastle United with our EPL picks.

Last Updated: Mar 3, 2023 9:51 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Newcastle United have no time to wallow in their defeat at Wembley last weekend, as a trip to the Etihad to face Man City looms. 

Newcastle's loss in the League Cup final wasn't exactly a reprieve from what's been a relatively poor stretch in the league, with their last win coming in mid-January. While City haven't been an entirely unstoppable juggernaut lately, they still present a borderline terrifying proposition for visiting teams. 

Ahead of Saturday's early kickoff, check out our picks and predictions for Man City vs. Newcastle United. 

Man City vs Newcastle best odds

Man City vs Newcastle picks and predictions

Though a recent barren stretch in attack was punctuated with a second straight goalless effort for Newcastle United, there's good reason for the club to be encouraged positive regression is on the way.

While they're still relatively talent poor, especially in comparison to the teams around them in the table, the personnel is beginning to provide Eddie Howe with genuine options across his front three.

Though woefully still inept at decision-making and playing a final ball, Allan Saint-Maximin has been tremendously lively in recent games and gives Newcastle an outlet they don't otherwise have. Alexander Isak has delivered bright cameo after bright cameo and is likely to start up front this weekend. And, January signing Anthony Gordon, is back in the squad after having to sit out last weekend's final. 

Regardless of the trio making up Newcastle's front three, they'll be considerably more likely to find dangerous positions with Bruno Guimaraes pulling the strings behind them. 

Bruno recently returned from a three-game suspension, and his absence only furthered proof of his importance. In the six he has missed in the league this season, Newcastle's averaging 0.66 goals and 1.58 xG. In the 17 league games he has played, however, they're averaging 1.94 goals and 1.88 xG per game. 

Even in the last two matches, in which they've failed to score, there's been encouraging numbers. They created 2.0 expected goals against Liverpool, despite playing nearly 70 minutes with 10 men. Then, in the EFL Cup final, they out-created Manchester United in xG, 1.24-1.19, though the victor's superior quality was obvious.

Newcastle may again find themselves held out by superior opposition but between their continued strong underlying numbers and increased options in attack, they're a good bet to score against City — especially with the host's increasingly leaky defense.

In their last 12 games across competitions, City have allowed 12 goals and kept a clean sheet just three times — the latest of which, against Championship side Bristol City midweek, ended a run of conceding in six straight games.

Yet, Man City have continued to take points at an elite clip, as they are fully capable of outscoring any side. Over that aforementioned 12-match stretch, they've scored 24 goals and were only shut out twice. Against a Newcastle side that has conceded in five straight games and is wobbling at the heights it reached early in the season, City will have no trouble continuing their run of goals and keeping pace with Arsenal. 

My best bet: Man City to win and both teams to score (+210 at bet365)

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Man City vs Newcastle side analysis

With City at -210 on the 3-way moneyline, there's no value in taking them straight up on Saturday. 

In addition to backing them to win and both teams to score, however, I would be comfortable taking City -1.5 at +100. This is less of an indictment of Newcastle, who I do believe can stabilize after a difficult stretch, and more so an endorsement of City's lethal play.

City have won 26 games across all competitions this season, and only six times has their opponent kept it within a single goal. Newcastle won't be able to be team No. 7.

Man City vs Newcastle Over/Under analysis

Seeing as goal-scoring and City's clinical play has been the foundation of most of the analysis you've read up to this point — unless you jumped right to here, in which case, weird move — there are a couple of goal markets we can look to.

Both teams to score (-110) would be the obvious one and can give us a good little layer of protection should Newcastle get a result at the Etihad. 

While the Over on the 2.5-goal total is heavily juiced (-150 vs. +120 to the Under), I like the odds on Over 3.5 — +162 —  and it should be a safe play with the idea that both teams will score and City will win by multiple goals.

Man City vs Newcastle game info

Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
TV: USA Network

Man City vs Newcastle key injuries

Man City: John Stones CB (Questionable), Aymeric Laporte CB (Questionable).
Newcastle: Emil Krafth RB (Out).

Man City vs Newcastle recent form

Teams Last five matches
Man City Man City W-D-W-W-L
Newcastle Newcastle L-D-D-D-W

Man City vs Newcastle weather

A cold but clear afternoon in Manchester is forecast for Saturday, with no rain and little wind expected. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

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