France vs Netherlands Picks and Predictions: Frenchman Rebound After World Cup Defeat

It's been three months since France suffered a tragic defeat in the World Cup Final against Argentina. With Mbappe now the captain and a new chapter beginning, our free betting picks expect the French to kick off qualifying with a statement win.

Last Updated: Mar 24, 2023 11:00 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Friday’s France-Netherlands fixture signals a new cycle for both teams as they seek to qualify for the 2024 European Championships, but the shadow of last year’s World Cup will loom over both teams, with Argentina ending both of their hopes in Qatar.

This talented Dutch squad will have to face a French team, who in many ways were unlucky to lose the World Cup Final and have a player hungry for revenge in Kylian Mbappe. Don’t miss our France vs. Netherlands free betting picks below.

France vs Netherlands best odds

France Netherlands
-120 Moneyline +333
+260 Draw +260
Over 2.5 (+100) Total Under 2.5 (-125)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on March 21, 2023.

France vs Netherlands picks and predictions

We have some interesting matchups during this international break but Friday’s France-Netherlands match is the pick of the bunch. This game gets Group B off to a big bang with two heavyweights of European soccer going toe-to-toe.

Both teams look different from how they did in Qatar with France missing some key players, especially on defense. William Saliba is out of the squad with an injury while Raphael Varane has retired from international duty. France's new captain Kylian Mbappe was given the armband after former captain Hugo Lloris retired after that final defeat.

The Netherlands look similar on the playing field but it’s Ronald Koeman in charge after Louis van Gaal left his post, The new manager has named five uncapped players in his squad that could appear against France.

The Dutch were better than many expected in Qatar, although it’s fair to say they failed upon their first real hurdle when they met Argentina and crucially, they're also missing Frenkie de Jong. De Jong is one of the best players in the world and a vital piece of the team’s gameplan due to the brilliant job he does in moving the ball across the pitch and retaining possession, something they’ll need to do against a talented France team.

It's going to be tough for the Netherlands to get anything out of this game. They have no world-class keepers or forwards and their one truly top-class midfielder de Jong is out with injury. And while they have a number of brilliant defenders, that won’t be enough to stop France with so much attacking talent at their disposal.

The French are -115 to win this one and it’s a price that will only get worse as the big game approaches so I’d recommend placing the bet as soon as possible if you're siding there. Mbappe is a sensational talent and we saw in the World Cup just how dangerous he can be. He also has a great matchup against Denzel Dumfries on the left-hand side of the pitch.

While the Dutch have a couple of world-class players on their squad, the same can’t be said for France who are stacked across the pitch.

You really won’t get a better value bet than France to win all week at -115 and I’d also recommend considering the handicap markets with France -1 at +240 or even France -2 goals at +600, which I certainly think are too big of a price. Don’t overthink this game, France will win it.

My best bet: France moneyline (-115 at FanDuel)

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France vs Netherlands side analysis

As mentioned above, you really don’t need to overthink this. France might not have won the World Cup but we saw in Qatar that they’re an exceptional side even when missing lots of great players. They have the best talent pool on the planet and it shows when you look at their starting XI.

Even without the likes of Saliba and the recently retired Varane, they’ll still have Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konate in the back with Theo Hernandez and Benjamin Pavard at fullback. The midfield is likely to be Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni, which is very solid but it’s the attack that's so terrifying.

Olivier Giroud will likely play as the frontman with Kingsley Coman and Mbappe on either side of him and Antoine Griezmann behind him. We saw in Qatar how brilliant the Atletico Madrid star was at dictating play and controlling the tempo and I’d expect him to be able to pull the strings here too.

The Dutch have a good defense and will be able to call upon Matthijs de Ligt, Virgil van Dijk, fellow Premier League starters Nathan Ake and Sven Botman, as well as Ajax’s Jurrien Timber, but they’re not blessed with exceptional talent elsewhere. 

Cillesseen will likely start in goal but midfielders like De Roon and Wijnaldum simply aren’t as good as those who’ll be in blue and while Cody Gakpo is a great talent, the front three of him, Bergwijn, and Weghorst aren’t as intimidating as that of the home team either.

France vs Netherlands Over/Under analysis

It’s not quite a pick’em but the odds here are very close with the Under being the marginal favorite at -125. While there’s a lot of defensive talent on the field, I’m not expecting this to be low-scoring and I’ll be getting action at +106 on Over 2.5 goals.

We saw at the World Cup that France were pragmatic, choosing to manage games rather than run over their opponents but this isn’t a tournament game. It’s the first home game after an ultimately disappointing tournament. France will want to make a statement and new captain Mbappe will be desperate to score his 37th goal for his country, if not more.

I’m very bullish on France winning this quite easily and I can see them scoring three or more goals as they do so. I’d consider an additional bet of France team total Over 2.5 at +310. The Dutch are a good side and could score too, but I can’t see them getting more than one at most.

France vs Netherlands game info

Location: Stade to France, Paris, France
Date: Friday, March 24, 2023
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET

France vs Netherlands key injuries

France: William Saliba CB (Out).
Netherlands: Frenkie de Jong MF (Out), Steven Bergwikn LW (Out). 

France vs Netherlands weather

A dry Parisian day will see temperatures in the mid-50s at kickoff.

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