Fiorentina vs West Ham Picks and Predictions: Amrabat's Aggressive Play Lands Him in Trouble

The Europa Conference League isn't a top trophy, but it's a trophy nonetheless with both teams looking to gain hardware. This match should get chippy, and our betting picks believe there won't be any shortage of cards shown.

Last Updated: Jun 7, 2023 12:45 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Sofyan Amrabat Fiorentina Serie A
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday serves us up a treat as Fiorentina face West Ham in the Europa Conference League final. It might be Europe’s third competition, but don’t tell the fans of either club that. Both Fiorentina and West Ham fans will be desperate to lift that trophy on Wednesday and seal a historic achievement for their club.

Can David Moyes’ West Ham beat Fiorentina, or will the Italians upset the Hammers? Don’t miss our Fiorentina vs West Ham betting picks to find out how to bet the Europa Conference League final.

Fiorentina vs West Ham best odds

Fiorentina West Ham
+162 Moneyline +170
+225 Draw +225
Over 2.5 (+115) Total Under 2.5 (-150)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 5, 2023.

Fiorentina vs West Ham picks and predictions

Both clubs have had difficult journeys to reach this point and the chance to break long trophyless spells are only some of the narratives at play, with a number of big names potentially moving on from each team, with Declan Rice potentially leaving West Ham this summer. My best bet for the game will focus on his opposite number in the Fiorentina midfield, Sofyan Amrabat, who we’ll be backing to get booked at +200 odds.

The 26-year-old burst into the global consciousness in the winter as he was integral in Morocco reaching the World Cup semifinals. Morocco exceeded all expectations with great performances across the team but it was Amrabat who stole the show. He acted as his team’s shield in midfield, anchoring the side and protecting the backline against a series of bigger, and better teams.

One of the best aspects of Amrabat’s game in Qatar was his ability to do the dirty work in midfield. That led to him getting stuck in, making last-ditch tackles, and disrupting play. That style is the reason why I'm backing Amrabat to find his name in the referee’s book here.

In 29 Serie A games — five of which were from the bench — he’s been booked 11 times. He isn’t afraid to get in amongst it and this has led him to get some silly bookings. He was calm and assured in Qatar but the pressure on Wednesday, in an intimate stadium, in front of a small group of dedicated fans, is going to be something special.

He's going to be operating in a midfield role which will see him having to deal with the players who’ll be making runs off Michail Antonio, which could force him into making some risky challenges. Not only that but referee Carlos del Cerro has given out 112 cards in 27 games in all competitions this season (101 yellow and 11 red).

Not only that, but last week’s Europa League final showed us that these tense, cagey finals can get dirty, with that game seeing 14 yellow cards to players and staff.

Don’t overthink this, Amrabat is liable to get booked, playing in the biggest club game of his career, in the most difficult position on the field. That +200 looks like real value.

My best bet: Sofyan Amrabat to get booked (+200 at FanDuel)

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Fiorentina vs West Ham side analysis

The bookies can’t really call this one. They’ve made West Ham minor favorites at -110 to lift the trophy or +175 to win inside 90 minutes, with Fiorentina +100 to become champions, or +180 to do it inside regulation.

All three of the European finals this year have an Italian finalist and we’ve already seen Roma lose, with Inter facing Man City on Saturday, and unfortunately for fans of I Viola, I think it’ll be West Ham lifting this trophy on Wednesday.

There are two main reasons why I’m confident in David Moyes’ team winning. Firstly, and this is perhaps crucial, they have experience. They went deep into European competition last year and fell at the last hurdle to Frankfurt in the Europa League semis. The players looked distraught after that loss but this season they’ve come back stronger.

It can’t be understated how beneficial that experience would have been for this group of players. Not only that, but it’s been clear since early in 2023 that this competition was the club’s real aim this season. We’ve historically seen Premier League teams treat this competition with little respect, but not West Ham, who have made it clear that they want to win it and have fielded good teams in every game.

Fiorentina vs West Ham Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total goals market there’s only one way I’d recommend betting, and that’s on Under 2.5 goals at -145. As mentioned above, this is a game that will probably be cagey and tight, and we know that Moyes — and Vincenzo Italiano to a lesser extent — will use pragmatism and gamesmanship to win this one.

Last week’s Europa League final finished 1-1 and the Under cashed, with both teams primarily focused on not conceding more than they were winning it. The Under landed in 60.5% of West Ham’s domestic games this season and 59.5% of Fiorentina’s games in Serie A. Back this one to be a cautious affair.

Fiorentina vs West Ham game info

Location: Fortuna Arena, Prague, Czech Republic
Date: Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+

Fiorentina vs West Ham key injuries

Fiorentina: No key injuries to report.
West Ham: Gianluca Scamacca ST (Out)

Fiorentina vs West Ham weather

It’ll be wet in Prague with temperatures around 70 degrees at the time of kickoff.

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