Euro 2020 bettors and fans who were concerned about the quality of Spain's entry at this year's European Championship were given plenty of fuel for the fire in a disappointing scoreless draw with Sweden to open Group E play.
The heavily-favored Spanish side dominated possession (85.1 percent) and shots (17-4) but was unable to put one past Swedish goalkeeper Robin Olsen and settled for an unsatisfying single point. Fortunately for Spain, it remains the favorite at -250 to win top spot in the group and can strengthen its standing with a win over a Polish side that opened with a 2-1 setback to Slovakia.
Keep reading for our tips and predictions for Spain vs. Poland on June 19.
Spain vs Poland game info
• Location: Estadio La Cartuja, Seville, Spain
• Date: Saturday, June 19, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC, CTV, TSN 1/5
Spain vs Poland betting tips
- Spain (-300)
- Under 2.5 (+100)
Read on for complete analysis
Spain vs Poland odds
Spain: -300
Poland: +900
Draw: +400
Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: -125
Under 2.5: +100
Odds as of June 18, 2021, at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 1:30 p.m. ET, 90 minutes before the match, Spain is out to a hefty -304 favorite, Poland is a +900 underdog and Draw is +380 at PointsBet USA. Despite the heavy tax, bettors are on Spain to the tune of 90 percent of bets and 92 percent of cash on the three-way moneyline. Poland is taking 5 percent of bets/3 percent of money, while Draw is getting 5 percent of tickets and money. "So obviously a Poland victory would be great for the book," PointsBet USA's Wyatt Yearout said. The total of 2.5 is seeing two-way action, with 52 percent of bets on the Over and 54 percent of money on the Under.
Spain vs Poland betting preview
Weather
Conditions are expected to be ideal at Estadio La Cartuja on Saturday, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high-70s. Wind might be a minor factor at 12 mph.
Key injuries
Spain: Sergio Busquets (Questionable).
Poland: Arkadiusz Reca (Out), Arkadiusz Milik (Out), Krzysztof Piatek (Out), Krystian Bielik (Out), Grzegorz Krychowiak (Out).
Spain vs Poland matchup
| Spain | Poland | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | World Ranking | 21 |
| 0 | Goals For | 1 |
| 0 | Goals Against | 2 |
| 0-0 Draw vs. Sweden | Previous Game | 1-2 Loss vs. Slovakia |
| Álvaro Morata | Player to Watch | Robert Lewandowski |
Spain vs Poland predictions
Side pick
If you could use a shrug emoji to sum up any match in the opening round of play at Euro 2020, the Spain-Sweden showdown would fit the bill perfectly. Spain threw everything it had at an overmatched Sweden back end but failed to take advantage of six corner kicks — or its 90 percent pass success — against the hearty Swedish side.
Still, with the club almost completely healthy (Sergio Busquets is likely to return to action Saturday, albeit in a reserve role) and the talent chasm between these teams rather large, Luis Enrique's crew should see more success simply by doing exactly what it did against Sweden: pressing the issue on offense and focusing on world-class ball control and passing.
Poland, on the other hand, has little to look forward to in this one after losing to a Slovak side picked to finish last in Group E. The Polish national team has defeated Spain just once in 10 meetings all-time — and with several key players missing, including talented Marseille striker Arkadiusz Milik, there's little chance that the visitors can keep up with the high-powered Spanish side.
Don't expect another goalless draw here... though it might not be far off, as we'll get into below.
PREDICTION: Spain (-300)
Total pick
Whether goal differential ultimately plays a role in Spain's climb to the top of Group E, there are plenty of other incentives for Luis Enrique to run up the score against Poland this weekend.
How the Spanish side responds to its upsetting tie with Sweden will mean everything to fans and national team brass, especially given that this is a home game for the current No. 6 favorite to win the European Championship. And with lineup changes almost certain to follow another disappointing showing, you can expect Spain's top players to perform at a higher level.
The question, then, is whether Spain will score enough to reach the Over on its own, since there's a good chance we won't see a goal from the Poland side. Maciej Rybus's 46th-minute tally provided Poland's lone offense vs. Slovakia, as global superstar Robert Lewandowski was held at bay throughout.
Look for Poland to bolster its defensive setup and focus on a Lewandowski-led counterattack to generate offense. It probably won't work, but it should keep the score reasonable.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 (+100)
Picks made on 6/18/2021 at 8:15 a.m. ET
Euro 2020 betting sites
As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.
