Another tremendous week of action awaits us in the Champions League. The top two in the group standings — Arsenal and Bayern Munich — face off on what promises to be an extraordinary evening of action in North London.
I have five UEFA Champions League best bets across the Matchday 5 fixtures, as well as a couple of player props selections.
UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for Matchday 5
Chelsea vs Barcelona
Draw (+290 at Sports Interaction)
I believe the market is underestimating the chances of Barcelona picking up a positive result at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are +130 favorites, with the Catalonian visitors the +170 outsiders.
Chelsea have averaged 1.92 points per game in the Premier League so far this season, while Barcelona are on 2.38 points per game in La Liga. These rivals have identical 2-1-1 records in the UCL group phase, with Barcelona having the better goal difference (+5 vs. +3).
It would be asking a lot of Barcelona to win in West London, so consider a draw at big odds instead.
- Date: Tuesday, November 24
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Marseille vs Newcastle
Marseille to win (0.5u) (+175 at Sports Interaction)
Draw (0.5u) (+240 at Sports Interaction)
Underdogs Marseille are the value pick on what promises to be a colorful and noisy evening at Stade Velodrome.
Their starting lineup is as strong as Newcastle's, and they have a host of experienced players on their books, including defender Benjamin Pavard and striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Marseille are 6-1-1 at home in all competitions, and were unlucky on the one occasion they did lose (0-1 vs Atalanta on Nov 5). Under pressure to collect points after a poor start in the tournament (1-0-3), they'll be keen to make up for lost time.
By splitting your stakes evenly across Marseille and a draw, you'll make a profit if the hosts avoid defeat.
- Date: Tuesday, November 24
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Stade Velodrome, Marseille, France
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Man City vs Bayer Leverkusen
Man City -1.5 (-167 at Sports Interaction)
Manchester City have comfortably won both Champions League home fixtures they've played so far: they beat Napoli 2-0 on September 18 and Borussia Dortmund 4-1 on November 5.
Bayer Leverkusen have had a relatively gentle run of fixtures to start their campaign: three of the four sides they've faced are in the bottom half of the Champions League group table, with two of them — Benfica and Copenhagen — in the Bottom 4.
The only time Leverkusen had to deal with opposition of comparable quality to Manchester City was when they lost 7-2 to PSG. I expect another convincing win for Pep Guardiola and his players.
- Date: Tuesday, November 24
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich +0.5 (-154 at Sports Interaction)
Bayern Munich are the pick as Europe’s top two sides go head-to-head at the Emirates Stadium this week. Vincent Kompany’s visitors are clear underdogs despite being Arsenal's equals, and arguably more dangerous going forward.
The German giants have a 10-1-0 Bundesliga record and, like Arsenal, a 100% win rate in this competition. They've also faced and beaten tougher opposition than the hosts: Last time out in the Champions League, Bayern won 2-1 away to defending champions PSG.
Arsenal are +120 to collect all three points — the market’s way of saying they have a 46% chance of winning — while Bayern are +220 (31%). Support the away team.
- Date: Wednesday, November 26
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Emirates Stadium, London, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan
Both teams to score (-154 at Sports Interaction)
Atletico Madrid’s stats point strongly towards both teams getting on the scoresheet.
Diego Simeone’s hosts have scored in all 17 matches they've played in the Champions League and La Liga (average 2.06 goals scored per game) and conceded every time they've faced strong opposition: They lost 3-2 and 4-0 away to Liverpool and Arsenal, respectively in this competition, and won 5-2 vs. Real Madrid in La Liga.
An attacking approach is likely as Atletico look to make up for dropped points. They should score, but will struggle to shut out an Inter side that has netted 11 goals in four Champions League games.
- Date: Wednesday, November 26
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Riyadh Air Metroplitano, Madrid, Spain
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Champions League player prop quick hits for Matchday 5
Olympiacos vs Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappe to score + Real Madrid to win (-130 at Sports Interaction)
It's no surprise Real Madrid are -250 to beat rank outsiders Olympiacos.
If you expect the visitors to collect all three points, back them while supporting Kylian Mbappe to find the net. A Real victory and Mbappe goal almost go hand-in-hand: The France superstar has scored in 11 of the 13 wins Real have recorded in the Champions League and La Liga this season.
Pafos vs Monaco
Maghnes Akliouche 1+ shot on target (-167 at Sports Interaction)
Right winger Akliouche starred for France during the recent international break and will be the main danger for Monaco this week.
He's managed a shot on target in three of Monaco’s four group games so far (average 3.5 shots per game, average 1.25 shots on target per game).
The 23-year-old wide man is more important than ever to Monaco as the club’s centre-forwards (USA international Folarin Balogun and Denmark international Mika Biereth) are struggling to produce consistently.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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