I’ve been tracking goals after a red card is issued for the last ~8 months and ready to start posting/tracking in this thread.
The hardest part is timing the odds/goal. Significant patience is required and you need to be ok passing if odds are not in your favor but a goal is scored that pushes the match scenario into low % of hitting. Lastly, later in matches (65+min) you’ll need to place the bet immediately after a red is issued as many times a team will instantly score.
Ultimately, the purpose is to quantitatively determine if we truly have some leverage on the books in this situation, as it seems to me.
A couple of rules/points to note:
0-0 score is by far lowest % of a goal after red
2 goal lead when red is issued to losing team is also a lower % (doesn’t really matter if 2-0, 3-1 etc)
Tied matches have a slightly higher %, especially if the spread btw teams are significant in the table standings (obvious but still pointing it out)
1 goal difference where losing team is issued a red is by far highest %
-150 (1.67) odds will be lowest I go (BetMGM/ DrafKings)
No Leagues or Cups are off limits
I will flat bet $100 to keep tracking purposes relatively easy.
I am using real money at this point but please tread lightly if following as this has and will always be a hobby of mine. Please keep in mind match scenarios can present themselves upwards of 10-20x on Saturday/Sunday. Let’s have some fun and hopefully make some $$
interesting. Looking forward to keeping an eye on this. Thanks for posting
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