USA vs Bolivia Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdogs Not Bowled Over on Day 4 of Copa America 2024

Christian Pulisic and Team USA might come away with the win over Bolivia on Sunday night, but it won't be a walk in the park with the Bolivians usually proving to be a tough out, per our Copa America soccer betting picks.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Jun 21, 2024 • 10:00 ET • 4 min read
Bolivia Miguel Villarroel Copa America 2024
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The United States begin their World Cup 2026 preparations as they open Copa America 2024 play vs. Bolivia.

The host nation looks to find a way to nab top-spot in the group ahead of Uruguay, and to do so they’ll need to start with three points. Gregg Berhalter will need a strong showing if he’s to ward off the renewed calls for his job, while the Yanks will want to demonstrate they can compete with CONMEBOL.

Bolivia are highly unlikely to advance from the group, but they can have a say in who wins it. While they’re not the nation they used to be, a change in manager has made them a tougher team to contend with in the Copa America 2024 odds.

Find out why that might make things a bit more difficult for the USMNT in our USA vs. Bolivia predictions for Sunday, June 23.

USA vs Bolivia picks and predictions

My best bet:
Bolivia +2 (+135 at Betano)

My analysis

Bolivia aren’t reaching the World Cup anytime soon, as their CONMEBOL qualifying matches have shown. So far this cycle, they’ve lost five of their six matches with a lone victory against Peru, the 32nd-ranked team in the FIFA World Rankings. 

But when you view that victory in context of coming shortly after a managerial change, you look a bit differently at the Bolivian team. Dig a bit deeper, and you’ll see that in the seven matches since Antonio Carlos Zago took over, they’ve been more competitive. 

Yes, they lost 3-0 to Colombia and 3-1 to Ecuador in their last two friendlies, but they managed 16 shots against Ecuador and played Colombia much more evenly than the United States recently did.

In Bolivia’s last 17 matches, they’ve lost by multiple goals just five times. Including the aforementioned losses, the other nations to achieve this feat were Uruguay, Argentina, and Brazil — all three of whom are Top 15 nations. 

But it’s their most recent match against a CONCACAF nation that has me believing they’ll lose by two goals at worst on Sunday. Mexico eked out a 1-0 win at the end of May at Soldier Field, a match in which Bolivia actually had more possession and conceded just one big chance.

The United States should win this match, but nothing they’ve shown me of late has me believing they’ll romp. They’re coming off a 1-1 draw with Brazil, but that match was played in a style where the USMNT thrives. They’ve been struggling against teams that let them have the ball and wait to hurt them when they make mistakes.

Gregg Berhalter’s side lost 5-1 to Colombia in that very fashion, and have won in regulation by multiple goals just twice in their last seven matches. One of those was a 3-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago, who played much of the match with 10 men and collapsed in the final 10 minutes by conceding three times. 

Only against Mexico in this spring’s CONCACAF Nations League final have they even scored multiple goals in a match in 2024. They’re struggling to find a consistent striker, are dealing with injury issues at key positions, and seem to be stagnating under Berhalter in his second stint. 

The other key factor is their defense. The Americans have kept one clean sheet in their last six matches, and they’ve made egregious mistakes in both their recent friendlies. 

Berhalter has a poor track record against CONMEBOL teams, with just one win in eight matches. He’ll get his second here, but I’ll take Bolivia to stay within two goals. 

Christian Pulisic odds, prop for today

My best bet
Pulisic to score anytime (+105 at Betano)

My analysis

One of the ways Bolivia looks to stay in matches is by playing physical. They commit fouls at one of the highest rates among the teams in Copa America.

That’s an important factor to look at when evaluating player props, especially when trying to figure out who might score a goal. And as Christian Pulisic showed against Brazil, if you give him a free kick near the penalty area, he can make you pay.

The American winger is coming off an excellent season with AC Milan, with 15 goals across 48 matches. That’s despite playing on the right, where he wasn’t as familiar and was unable to cut inside on his preferred foot.

But with the national team, he’s the focal point of the offense. He’s scored in five of his last eight matches, and as the primary set-piece taker has a stronger chance to score against a Bolivian side that will compact things in defense. 

Pulisic tends to shoot more often against opponents who defend in such a manner, and is one of the team’s best scorers from range. This price is a fair one and I’ll back it in this spot. 

USA vs Bolivia same-game parlay (SGP)

Bolivia +2

Christian Pulisic to score anytime

Under 3.5

I see this match being a 2-1 win for the Americans, with Pulisic being involved in the scoring as previously discussed. Thankfully, it sets us up for a strong same-game parlay.

Fifteen of Bolivia’s last 18 matches have featured three or fewer goals. In 12 of those 18, they’ve either won, drawn, or lost by a single goal. They’re a team that defends in a low block, looks to hit on the break, and makes things difficult for opponents. They don’t score many goals, and this should be a tighter affair than the odds indicate. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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USA vs Bolivia odds

USA Bolivia
-476 Moneyline +1,650
Over 2.5 (-161) Total Under 2.5 (+130)
+600 Draw +600

Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-19.

USA vs Bolivia game info

Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX
Date: Sunday, June 23, 2024
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET

Not intended for use in MA.
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