Barcelona vs PSG Predictions and Picks for Today’s Champions League Match

The first leg of this UCL quarterfinal supplied five goals in a 3-2 Barca win, and with PSG needing to open up to win, our Champions League picks expect a similar result.

Apr 16, 2024 • 12:01 ET • 4 min read
Pedri Barcelona
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Barcelona will hope their first-leg victory over PSG sees them through to the Champions League semifinals when the two teams face off this afternoon. 

The Catalans enjoy a one-goal edge as they return home, but they know sitting on their laurels won’t be an option. Kylian Mbappe and company give PSG the ability to turn this tie around in an instant, but they’ll need to be wary of opening themselves up as Barcelona scored three in the first showdown. 

My Champions League betting picks for Barcelona vs PSG on Tuesday, April 16 break down the match as we explain why the way these teams match up opens up some terrific betting opportunities. 

Barcelona vs PSG picks and predictions

The oddsmakers are expecting goals and plenty of them. The total of Over 3.5 is barely hanging onto plus odds, which is something you don’t typically see. But after a five-goal thriller that saw 13 shots put on target, it’s not surprising.

And with PSG forced to chase the match and open themselves up on the counter, it’s a golden opportunity for Barcelona to once again hit them for multiple goals. Combine that with their stellar form, and you have the perfect parlay at TonyBet with a price of +225 on offer.

Since announcing he would be stepping away from his job at the end of the season, Xavi has yet to taste defeat as Barcelona manager. In their 13 ensuing fixtures, Barcelona has won 10 and drawn three. That looked in danger in the first leg after PSG scored twice shortly after halftime, but the introduction of Pedri into midfield quickly saw an improvement in play.

Pedri’s return is key for a team that has desperately missed his creativity. It also reminds you Barcelona hasn’t been in full health during this run, and are now almost back to fitness.

While last week’s defeat ended PSG’s 27-match unbeaten run, they’ve not been at their best on the road in European competition. They lost at Newcastle and AC Milan before drawing with Borussia Dortmund in the group stage, and they were outshot 14-10 by Real Sociedad in the Round of 16.

While it’s not the Camp Nou, Barcelona have found a home this season at the Olympic Stadium. They’ve won all four Champions League matches there and are set up to hurt PSG on the counter yet again. The majority of their stars were rested at the weekend, and Raphinha can exploit the space behind Achraf Hakimi when he’s undoubtedly caught out of position. 

Neither of these teams are keeping a clean sheet. As we saw in the first leg, there’s simply too much offensive talent on both sides of the pitch. This should be a thrilling encounter where both teams find the back of the net, but one that sees the same result as the first leg. Take Barcelona to win with three or more goals being scored on the day. 

My best bet: Barcelona to win and both teams to score (+225 at TonyBet)

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Barcelona vs PSG same-game parlay (SGP)

Barcelona to win

Both teams to score

Over 9.5 corners

Over 28.5 shots

The interesting part of the first leg is that all of PSG’s shots came either from sides of the penalty area or just above it. Barcelona did an outstanding job of getting bodies in the way and forcing PSG to fire from distance while denying the penetrating runs that Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele are capable of.

This led to PSG taking 18 of the match’s 33 shots, and they earned seven of the match’s 12 corners from shots being knocked over the end line. I’m expecting more of the same here, and we’ll take 10+ corners and 29+ shots to build ourselves an outstanding parlay paying out at +812. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Barcelona vs PSG odds

Barcelona vs PSG live odds

Barcelona vs PSG opening odds

  • Spread: Barcelona +0.3 (-104) | PSG -0.3 (-122)
  • Moneyline: Barcelona +118 | PSG +195
  • Over/Under: Over 3.25 (-103) | Under 3.25 (-123)

Barcelona vs PSG side and Over/Under analysis

  • Barcelona are favored at +125, down from +135 earlier in the week. PSG is +190 to win, while the draw is +300
  • Barcelona have won their last six matches, and are unbeaten in their last six at home.
  • The total of 3.0 sees the Over favored at -130.
  • Barcelona and PSG’s 14 all-time meetings have averaged 3.6 goals per contest.

Barcelona vs PSG game info

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona, Spain
Date: Tuesday, 4-16-2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Weather: 60 Degrees F, Wind: 12-18 mph, POP: 3%

Barcelona vs PSG key injuries

Barcelona: Andreas Christensen D (Out), Sergi Roberto M (Out), Gavi M (Out), Alejandro Balde D (Out). 
PSG: Nordi Mukiele D (Out), Presnel Kimpembe D (Out). 

Not intended for use in MA.
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