Arsenal vs Brighton Picks and Predictions: Plenty of Cards on Deck

Sunday sees a crucial Premier League game in the battle for the title with Arsenal vs Brighton. Arsenal headed into the weekend one point behind Man City, who have a game in hand. With Man City playing on Saturday it piles the pressure on Arsenal, who need to beat Brighton to keep their faint hopes alive.

Meanwhile, Brighton have their eye on European competition next season. Can the Gunners stop them? Don’t miss our Arsenal vs Brighton picks and predictions for Sunday, May 14.

Arsenal vs Brighton best odds

Arsenal vs Brighton picks and predictions

The Premier League title is still up for grabs, and Sunday could be a decisive day in determining its destination. Arsenal host Brighton, with both teams desperate for three points. 

Arsenal are chasing Man City, who face Everton a day earlier on Saturday, with the reigning champions one point ahead with a game in hand. Then there’s Brighton, who are locked in battle with Tottenham and Aston Villa in the hunt for a spot in European competition next season, something which would be a gigantic achievement for the South Coast club.

Both teams come into this with their seasons on the line. We’re in the final stages, and now every game and every moment within it can define the entire campaign. That puts enormous pressure on the players, and they’ll be hotly contesting every tackle with ferocity and determination. Our best bet for Arsenal vs Brighton focuses on that, and more specifically on the Total Cards line. The line currently sits at 3.5, and we’ll be backing Over 3.5 cards to be shown during the game.

Referee Andy Madley will be taking charge of this one. The 39-year old is one of the best refs in the Premier League, and he is capable of dishing out the cards. He’s taken charge of 23 Premier League games so far this season, dishing out 82 yellow cards at an average of 3.57 per game, and three reds at 0.13 per game. He blows up for 22.39 fouls per game, something worth keeping in mind here. His numbers rise if you take all competitions into account, such as the Championship and international competition, where he averages 3.63 cards per game. 

Madley hasn’t taken charge of these two teams very often this year, showing just two cards in two games officiating Brighton, but he did show four cards in his sole appearance when refereeing Arsenal. Given the importance of this game, it’s quite easy to imagine this one being full of tough tackling challenges. It’s also worth noting that in the reverse fixture in the Premier League back in December there were six cards, split equally between both teams, in a match which Arsenal won 4-2.

Both of these teams have skillful players and thrive on possession, which means that both teams have drawn plenty of cards this season. Arsenal and Brighton both rank Top 8 for fouls against this season. In their past two games, Brighton have forced their opposition to give up nine yellow cards. Arsenal’s past four games have seen their opposition get a combined 12 cards, with a minimum of two against them in each game. 

Don’t overthink this. When the pressure is on, it’s just going to up the intensity and up the mistakes. We can expect this to be a feisty game, and at -114, we’ll be backing Over 3.5 cards.

My best bet: Over 3.5 cards (-114 at Unibet)

Arsenal vs Brighton side analysis

Mikel Arteta and Roberto De Zerbi have been two of the Premier League’s best managers this season, and they’re both astute tacticians. 

We know how Arteta sets up his teams by now, and they’ll likely be playing with a formation that switches between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. The back four should see Gabriel and Jakub Kiwior in the middle with Ben White at rightback and Kieran Tierney at leftback. Thomas Partey has been dropped for Jorginho in recent weeks, but I expect the Ghanaian to be recalled and partnered with Granit Xhaka. Martin Odegaard will act as the third man when the team are out of the possession before moving to into an advanced position when they have the ball. 

With Arsenal needing the win here, we’ll probably see both Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, who’ll be on either side of Gabriel Jesus.

Brighton will see Evan Ferguson leading the line, supported by the excellent Kaoru Mitoma and Julio Enciso, with most likely, Facundo Buonanotte. The midfield will be anchored by Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister, who have been excellent this year and are now both linked with the biggest clubs in the Premier League and beyond. The back four should see Levi Colwill and Lewis Dunk flanked by Pascal Gross and Pervis Estupinan.

Arsenal are -130 favorites, with the away side at +320. Arsenal didn’t come unstuck against a tricky Newcastle team, so it’s understandable to think they win here. But I’d probably consider the draw at +325, which looks like a big price. 

Arsenal vs Brighton Over/Under analysis

The total market doesn’t offer much value for Sunday’s game with Over 2.5 goals, my preferred pick, being a very short price at -175. But if you look at their records over the season, it’s entirely justified.

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 88.2% of Arsenal’s home Premier League games this season, with Under 2.5 goals landing in just two of those games all season long. Not only that, but Arsenal come into this having scored at least two goals in 10 of their past 11 EPL affairs.

Then you have to consider that the reverse game in this fixture saw a combined six goals. Brighton are also involved in a lot of high-scoring games when they’re on the road, with 75% of their Premier League matches away from the Amex hitting that number. 

Arsenal vs Brighton game info

Arsenal vs Brighton key injuries

Arsenal: Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Out), William Saliba CB (Out), Oleksandr Zinchenko (Out)
Brighton: Adam Lallana CM (Out), Jeremy Sarmiento FWR (Out), Tariq Lamptey RB (Out), Jakub Moder CM (Out), Joel Veltman RB (Out), Solly March RM (Questionable)

Arsenal vs Brighton recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Arsenal	W-W-L-D-D
Brighton	L-W-W-L-W

Arsenal vs Brighton weather

It’ll be a nice dry Sunday in London, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 60s.

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