Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predictions and Picks: Throwing Caution to the Wind

Arsenal find themselves in must-win territory from here on out and a tough match vs. Aston Villa could trip them up. With frustration on the menu, our soccer expert believes one Gunner could find his way into the ref's bad book.

Apr 12, 2024 • 13:18 ET • 4 min read
Kai Havertz Arsenal EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There’s more great Premier League action with Arsenal vs Aston Villa on Sunday 14th April. Arsenal came into the weekend top of the Premier League on goal difference, while the visitors Aston Villa are in a battle with Spurs to finish in the fourth spot and seal Champions League competition next season.

A defeat here could seriously damage the losing team’s chances of a successful season, but who will that be?

Join me as I break down the EPL odds and offer my best free picks for Arsenal vs. Aston Villa. 

Arsenal vs Aston Villa best odds

EPL predictions for Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa is a top-five clash with two of the season’s biggest performers meeting at the Emirates. Arsenal comes into this weekend top of the Premier League, thanks to a superior goal difference with Liverpool.

With title challengers Liverpool and Man City playing earlier in the weekend it means the Gunners are set for a high-pressure game. 

It's not just been Arsenal who has performed well this season, Aston Villa came into the weekend fifth in the table, level on points with Spurs, who currently occupy the fourth spot. With Liverpool, Man City, and Sunday’s opponents Arsenal all in a title battle it means that the best Villa can realistically hope for is to finish fourth and seal Champions League action next season. That would be an incredible achievement but it’s going to be a tough end of the season for them and they can’t afford to keep dropping points, having won just once in their past five Premier League games before this.

Our best bet for the game doesn’t focus on the moneyline, or even goalscorers but on bookings and one player in particular, Arsenal’s Kai Havertz, who at +309 is a big price to get booked.

Havertz hasn’t always been a starter since arriving at the Emirates from Chelsea this summer but he’s been in the starting XI for each of the past eight games across both the Premier League and Champions League, acting as a false nine, bringing others into play and allowing the likes of Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka the room to work their magic. That period has seen him pick up four goals and assist a further four more, but crucially it’s also seen him pick up three bookings. 

The 24-year-old is far from a dirty player yet he’s managed to get booked five times since the start of February and often finds himself bringing down the opponents as they break following an Arsenal attack. His strength is also deceptive and he finds himself bringing down players and giving up more fouls than you’d expect for somebody in his position. 

Nobody in the Arsenal team to have played multiple Premier League games this season has more fouls on average than Havertz who commits 1.3 per game. Not only that but he also leads the team in yellow cards in the league, with his eight being two more than Ben White and Gabriel Jesus, who are next in line. If you include his performances in both the Champions League and Community Shield then you can add another three cards to his total too.

Now he faces a matchup against a very good and very dangerous Aston Villa team, which is likely to see him need to commit more cynical challenges. Something that should catch the eye of referee David Coote who is officiating Sunday’s game. Coote has shown himself to be happy to show cards this season, with the second highest average amongst all Premier League refs, a huge 5.38 yellow cards per game. From what we’ve seen from both Havertz and Coote this season, we have a better than +309 of the German being booked again. 

My best bet: Kai Havertz to be booked (+309 at TonyBet)

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Arsenal vs Aston Villa same-game parlay (SGP)

Kai Havertz to be booked

Arsenal moneyline

Over 2.5 goals

Arsenal come into this unbeaten in their past 11 Premier League games. They’ve won 10 of those 11, with the only dropping of points coming against Man City, one of their Premier League title rivals, in a game which finished 0-0. As good as Aston Villa are, this is a very impressive Arsenal team, who should have more than enough to beat Unai Emery’s team, especially in front of a home crowd who are creating a great atmosphere this season.

To wrap up our Same-Game Parlay we’re also going to back Over 2.5 goals at the Emirates on Sunday. We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals landed in eight of Aston Villa’s last 10 away games in the league. It’s also landed in a huge 73.3% of Arsenal’s league games at the Emirates too with only one of their past five not hitting the three-goal mark.

Incredibly this fixture has seen Over 2.5 goals in each of the last 13 meetings too.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis

An Arsenal win on Sunday is to be expected but odds of -345 to back it on the moneyline just aren’t enough to risk it. The draw at +520 is marginally more appealing at that price, as is an away win at +880. That said, it’s really hard to see this being anything but an Arsenal win, even against a good Villa side. 

The Same-Game Parlay also touches on the Total Goals market and the reasons for backing Over 2.5 goals. It’s a wager I’m very keen to include as part of a Same-Game Parlay but at -205 it’s something I’d avoid outside of a parlay. The Under comes in at +170 if you want to go against the trending data.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Arsenal vs Aston Villa game info

Location: Emirates Stadium, London, England
Date: Sunday, April 14, 2024
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
TV: Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV
Weather: Cool, cloudy but dry conditions. 

Arsenal vs Aston Villa key injuries

Arsenal: Jurrien Timber DEF (Out)
Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara CM (Out), Emiliano Buendia CAM (Out), Tyrone Mings CB (Out) Matty Cash FB (Out), Jacob Ramsey MID (Questionable)

Arsenal vs Aston Villa recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Arsenal Arsenal W-W-D-W-W
Aston Villa Aston Villa D-L-W-D-L

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