Prediction market apps expect a strong Democratic showing in the midterm elections as President Donald Trump’s approval rating hits an all-time low.
Less than one-third of Americans support the 45th and 47th President’s performance, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
- Trump’s previous all-time low was 32% in a poll shared two weeks ago
- Republicans controlled the House and Senate for the last two years
- Kalshi users believe that there are 64 more “safe” calls for Democrats than Republicans in the House
Trump approval ratings & market sentiment
The new poll was released on Monday, Oct. 19. It recorded responses from 1,679 U.S. adults over four days, with a 2% margin of error.
The findings cited Trump’s approval rating at just 31%, the lowest market-reported number of either of his terms in the Oval Office. It was also one point lower than his previous record low, recorded two weeks ago.
Polls aren't votes in and of themselves, but they reflect how Americans think. The same goes for prediction markets, which let traders risk money on event outcomes, including elections.
Users on prediction market leader Kalshi-- which launched a dedicated election hub page in July -- believe that the Democrats have an overwhelming 91% chance to control the U.S. House of Representatives and a 68% chance to control the U.S. Senate. That's based on real-time market sentiment from traders who buy and sell event contracts tied to a variety of outcomes.
Kalshi’s election contracts cover markets as broad as the party winner in the House and Senate, and as narrow as individual races in all 50 states.
The election hub shows the most-traded contract markets, up-to-the-minute probabilities, related markets, and additional information.
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Senate balance of power & key races
Republicans (53 seats) gained Senate control over Democrats (45 seats) for the first time since the 166th Congress, which served from 2019-21.
According to Kalshi, 12 races are already ruled “Safe Democratic,” while two others are “Likely Democratic.” Similarly, 13 are deemed “Safe Republican,” and one is “Likely Republican.”
The difference lies in the “Lean” states: four Democratic and two Republican. One (Iowa midterm odds - Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek) is a toss-up.
The most-traded race is James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R) in Texas midterm odds. More than $37 million in contract sales have already been processed, with users favoring Talarico by a 68-32 margin.
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House controversy brewing?
The Republican Party’s best chance of holding one chamber is expected in the Senate; prediction markets suggest Democrats will have no trouble achieving a House majority.
As in the Senate, the GOP held the majority over the last two years. That marked the first time since the 115th Congress (2017-19) that a Republican President was complemented by Republican majorities in both chambers.
Kalshi traders have given Democrats a 92% chance of restoring control of the House in the midterms. 208 races are deemed “Safe Democratic,” compared with just 144 “Safe Republican”; 18 are “Likely Democratic” and 34 “Likely Republican”; and 9 are “Lean Democratic” versus 17 “Lean Republican.” Five races are still “Toss-Ups.”
The most-traded race is between Bobby Pulido (D) and Monice De La Cruz (R) in Texas. But perhaps more interestingly, the second most-traded features Minnesotans Ilhan Omar (DFL) and John Nagel (R).
Outside its election hub, Kalshi offers a market that asks users to predict which individuals will be charged with a federal crime before the end of the year. Omar, whose D.C. home was raided this week, has a 44% chance, up 6% from one week ago.
The scrutiny relates to ongoing Homeland Security and Department of Justice investigations into immigration fraud and potentially fraudulent financial disclosures.
