Nate Silver rose to prominence providing an extremely accurate forecast for the 2008 presidential election. Since then, the political analyst's word carries serious weight in the world of election betting.
Prediction markets likewise announced themselves to the world based on their forecasting of a presidential election in 2024. The bullishness of exchange traders on Donald Trump’s prospects helped propel prediction markets into the political consciousness.
Now it’s two years later, and both Silver and prediction markets are projecting 2026 midterm election odds. Those projections are garnering a lot of attention, and while both forecasts lean Democratic, there are some differences between the two.
Here, then, are some of the more significant discrepancies between Silver’s FLIPR model (the latest version of which was released Tuesday morning) and prediction market pricing.
A Senatorial split
One market with significant daylight between Silver and prediction market traders has to do with the Senate control odds.
Silver's model projects an 82.4% likelihood of Democratic control of the upper chamber of Congress. As of around midday on Tuesday, Kalshi's Senate control forecast is sitting at 72% Democratic.
That is a relatively big split, and one that could prove significant as voting continues.
BREAKING: 71% chance James Talarico becomes Texas's first elected Democratic senator in nearly 40 years https://t.co/iyylrncVP9
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 3, 2026
While it’s been widely assumed Democrats will control the House of Representatives after Tuesday, the Senate has always looked like a longer shot.
Case in point: Kalshi House control odds traders are projecting a 93% likelihood of Democrats controlling the House after Tuesday. Silver's model forecasts a 96.4% chance of Democratic control of the chamber.
However, if the Democrats can nail down enough Senate seats, they will control both chambers of Congress. That would give them considerably more influence over what comes out of D.C. in the next two years.
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Election excavation
There are arguably some quibbles between prediction market traders and Silver’s model over the individual Senate races as well.
Take Nebraska, for example, where Silver's model projects that incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts is leading by 1.2 points in the polls. Kalshi traders, though, are projecting more than a 70% chance for Ricketts in Tuesday's vote.
It's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it suggests PM traders are feeling perhaps a bit more bullish about the Republican in what looks to be a close race.
In the Iowa midterm odds, Kalshi traders have it as a 50/50 race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. Silver's model sees things similarly, projecting Turek ahead by 1.1 points.
JUST IN: Darline Graham, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, has a 70% chance of winning South Carolina's Senate race
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 3, 2026
A similar example to Nebraska would be South Carolina, which has been a pretty safe Senate seat for Republicans.
Silver's model projects that incumbent Republican Sen. Darline Graham leads by 1.1 points over Democrat Annie Andrews in the polls. However, Kalshi traders have Graham as 70% likely to win the Senate election as of Tuesday afternoon.
Again, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but the prices suggest that traders don't see the race as tight as Silver's model is projecting.
