Prediction markets favor Kansas’ Adam Hamilton (D) to beat Roger Marshall (R) in a topsy-turvy race for a U.S. Senate seat.
Industry leader Kalshi showed the race completely flipped toward the end of October, and Hamilton is now pulling ahead.
- Hamilton was a sizable underdog at Kalshi less than one week ago
- Marshall is the incumbent and supports a farm bill that is popular with many Kansas residents
- The race produced over $11.3 million in trades as of Tuesday morning
Marshall, the incumbent, only has a 35% chance of winning his spot back in the Senate at Kalshi on the morning of the midterm elections. That’s despite him being listed at around 61% less than one week ago.
Hamilton (65%) has earned prediction traders' favor for several reasons. Criticism of Marshall, a former OB-GYN, stemmed from his lawsuits against former patients for unpaid medical bills. President Donald Trump, a fellow Republican, also made misleading claims about Hamilton, while Republican control of Congress over the last couple of years could not prevent a rapid increase in the cost of living.
Hamilton himself is a preacher at the nation’s largest United Methodist congregation. He has no background in politics but has become popular for his centrist ideas.
At Kalshi, more than $12 million has been traded on who would win the race as of 5 p.m. ET on Election Day.
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Hamilton (D) vs. Marshall (R) prediction
Hamilton believes in ending tariffs and the war in Iran. He also wants to restore ACA premium tax credits, reverse Medicaid cuts, and expand Medicare drug pricing to private insurance companies.
Marshall believes in security through a strong southern border. He’s also strongly backing a farm bill supporting crop insurance and rural development, among other measures.
Hamilton outperformed Marshall in polling averages, 48.6-45.2%. He also represents the “new” part of a Blue Wave that often follows Republican congressional control, which makes him a strong pick to win his campaign.
My pick for Hamilton vs. Marshall: Hamilton ($0.65) | TRADE THIS MARKET ON KALSHI
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More midterm election battleground states odds
Senate control races and Governors’ Mansion races across America will come down to key battleground states. With statewide races heating up everywhere, many key states have plenty of interesting races.
- Alaska Midterm Odds
- Florida Midterm Odds
- Georgia Midterm Odds
- Iowa Midterm Odds
- Maine Midterm Odds
- Michigan Midterm Odds
