Democrat Troy Jackson (68%) leads Republican Susan Collins (32%) in prediction markets for the Maine Senate race as of Tuesday afternoon.
Traders at Kalshi favor the Democrat amid a supposed “Blue Wave” in the final hours before voting concludes.
Probabilities provided live by prediction.com
Jackson is looking to take the seat currently held by Collins, a 73-year-old incumbent who has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997.
Collins outperformed the Polls the last time that she was up for re-election in 2020. However, she faces several key challenges in her re-election bid, including the fact that notorious poll-defier President Donald Trump isn’t on the ticket with her. Additionally, a natural seesaw effect is expected to tilt the balance of power toward the Democrats after two years of a full Republican Congress and House.
- Collins has represented Maine in the U.S. Senate since 1997
- Collins severely outperformed polls during the 2020 election
- Jackson saw a significant increase in support for his campaign from traders over the last week
Jackson has grown from 59% one week ago to 73% as of late Monday afternoon. He also leads in polling averages at 50.1%, while Collins is at 46.2% — for what it’s worth, after her strong showing last time around.
More than $22 million has been traded in Kalshi prediction markets for the Maine Senate race.
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Jackson (D) vs. Collins (R) prediction
Jackson supports Medicare and a slashing of prescription-drug prices. He also proposed tax cuts and expanded credits for working families and wants to increase taxes on the wealthy, including lifting the Social Security payroll-tax cap.
Collins opposes Medicaid cuts and backs a proposed $50 billion rural health fund. She previously helped procure federal funding for in-state projects, including infrastructure, hospitals, and fighting veteran homelessness.
The growing support for Jackson, while not definitive, is a positive sign for his midterm chances. That said, Maine’s polling and voting patterns are unique compared to the rest of the nation, and Collins has shown an ability to overcome the public expectation during her 30-year career in Congress.
My pick for Jackson vs. Collins: Troy Jackson ($0.68) | TRADE THIS MARKET ON KALSHI
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