"I’ll smoke him by 7," Dr. Abdul El-Sayed said three months before defeating Mike Rogers by seven points in the midterm elections to win a seat in the U.S. Senate.
- El-Sayed correctly predicted his seven-point victory three months ago.
- Prediction markets favored El-Sayed over Rogers since late 2024.
- El-Sayed attacked President Trump and Vice President Vance in his victory speech Wednesday morning.
El-Sayed faced Republican Mike Rogers, a former chair of the House Intelligence Committee and former U.S. representative, in the race for Michigan’s Senate seat.
In May, the X user "Election Time" shared polling averages from pollsmax.com that showed El-Sayed trailing Rogers 40.6% to 44.3%. But El-Sayed called his shot, predicting the exact margin of his eventual victory.
Gimme three months and his golf buddies in Florida wouldn’t even vote for him. I’ll smoke him by 7. Bet on it.
— Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (@AbdulElSayed) May 4, 2026
Legal U.S. sportsbooks do not offer wagers on election outcomes, much less margins of victory. But El-Sayed’s prediction was on the money. He held a 7.04% lead over Rogers when 97% of votes were counted as of Wednesday morning.
The 42-year-old former director of the Detroit Health Department didn’t forget his prediction, either. He replied to his post Wednesday with an uncaptioned image of the voting results declaring his victory.
https://t.co/hV8N7PiyDm
— Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (@AbdulElSayed) November 4, 2026
El-Sayed takes key battleground state
Kalshi launched a prediction market on the winner of Michigan’s Senate race shortly after the 2024 presidential election. El-Sayed was never listed as the underdog in the market, including on election night.
Kalshi’s market showed that El-Sayed had a 68% chance of winning the Senate seat last Tuesday. That value grew to 80% by midnight Tuesday and never fell below 75% until he was announced as the winner.
Proponents of prediction markets have argued markets can be more accurate than polls. But while El-Sayed was an underdog in the polling average he referenced online, the latest polling averages aggregated by Kalshi also showed he was a favorite over his Republican challenger.
Michigan was a key battleground in the fight for control of the Senate, which Democrats will control for at least the next two years. As of Wednesday morning, Democrats had secured 54 seats to Republicans’ 44, while races in Mississippi and Alaska remained uncalled.
