The PGA Tour kicks off the fall swing with the inaugural 2026 Biltmore Championship at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove in Asheville, North Carolina, and I’ve put together a handful of golf picks to welcome in the event.
Davis Thompson and a mispriced Ryo Hisatsune headline my opening Biltmore Championship picks ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, Sept. 17.
📇 Biltmore Championship top picks
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📊 Biltmore Championship odds
The Biltmore Championship runs at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove in Asheville from Thursday, Sept. 17, through Sunday, Sept. 20.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Jackson Koivun | 6.2% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 4.3% |
| Benjamin James | 3.3% |
| Davis Thompson | 3% |
| Doug Ghim | 3% |
| Mac Meissner | 2.5% |
| Marco Penge | 2.5% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 2.5% |
| Corey Conners | 2.7% |
| J.T. Poston | 2.2% |
| Eric Cole | 2.2% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 2.2% |
🔍 What I'm looking for at the Biltmore Championship
While The Cliffs is a 7,249-yard, par 71 on the card, the Jack Nicklaus design sits at an elevation of over 2,200 feet, so the track will play far shorter than the scorecard suggests.
Still, there's thick, 6.5-inch Kentucky bluegrass rough alongside the heavily sloped green complexes that demand precision into small landing areas, which serve as primary course defenses.
There also isn’t a single par 4 over 500 yards, while three of the five par 3s are 199 yards or longer, with the outlier the 187-yard No. 11.
The winner and contenders will need accuracy from tee-to-green. There’s the potential to overpower this small track too, and avoiding squares on the card will also be critical for the players looking to bomb and gauge their way around The Cliffs.
Key stats
- True strokes gained tee-to-green, and true strokes gained approach
- Adjusted scoring average
- Proximity from 200+ Yards, and 100–125 Yards
- Bogey avoidance
🏆 Biltmore Championship picks to win
Best bet to win: Davis Thompson (3% at Kalshi)
A late-season run (T7-T8-T14) left Davis Thompson just outside the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so I’m buying his winning pedigree in this shallow field.
- Course fit: Tee-to-green game is dialed to fit the demands of The Cliffs
- Recent form: Enters on highlighted T7-T8-T14 heater
- Key stat: Leads the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past three events
Thompson paces this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches during the noted run. He also ranks 13th in par-4 scoring average and 11th in bogey avoidance this season.
Outright pick 2: Marco Penge (2.5% at Kalshi)
If anyone can bomb and gauge their way around The Cliffs, it's three-time DP World Tour winner Marco Penge.
- Course fit: Could turn this track into a pitch-and-putt
- Recent form: T6-T18 run leading in
- Key stat: 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past five events
Penge is rounding back into form with true strokes gained across the board through his past five events, which includes ranking third in this field in driving and 11th in tee-to-green play.
He's also carded a T6-T18 run leading into this event, so trading at 2.6% gets my attention at a track he can easily overpower, and especially at altitude.
💣 Biltmore Championship long-shot picks
Ryo Hisatsune immediately caught my eye down the oddsboard because he’s carded five top-10 finishes this season, with four worldwide wins on his resume. It was an easy early click to trade on the rising star to win.
Best long-shot pick: Ryo Hisatsune (2.2% at Kalshi)
A PGA Tour win is coming for Ryo Hisatsune sooner than later, and he’s just one of three players in this field who played two FedEx Cup Playoff events.
- Course fit: Tee-to-green precision is the name of Hisatsune's game
- Recent form: T12 in loaded BMW Championship field in last event
- Key stat: Second in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026
I’m surprised to see Hisatsune trading this low. He gained true strokes across the board during the two playoff events to rank second in this field in approach play and seventh in tee-to-green play, after all.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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