After a discouraging series of warm-up games ahead of the Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the USA will begin group play against France on Sunday in Saitama.
The two teams will begin their Olympics with a rematch of the 2019 World Cup quarterfinals, a game that was won by France in shocking fashion.
Can the Americans put a worrying lead-up behind them and take the opener? Check out our France vs. USA picks and predictions for July 25.
France vs USA game info
• Location: Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
• Date: Sunday, July 25, 2021
• Time: 8:00 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
France vs USA betting tips
- USA -11.5 (-105)
- Over 178.5 (-110)
Read on for complete analysis
France vs USA match odds
France: +11.5 (-115)
USA: -11.5 (-105)
Total: 178.5
Over 178.5: -110
Under 178.5: -110
France vs USA betting preview
Key injuries
France: No injuries to report.
USA: No injuries to report.
France vs USA predictions
Against the spread (ATS) pick
When the USA announced what was an underwhelming roster for the Olympics, one name drew more attention and scrutiny than any other: the oft-injured Kevin Love. While Love would eventually have to withdraw due to a nagging injury, his inclusion was made with this specific matchup in mind.
That's because, in France's upset win over the U.S. two years ago, Jazz center Rudy Gobert absolutely dominated, with his rim protection, defensive instincts, and absurd length maximized in international play, where there is no defensive three-second rule. With Love, the idea was that he could play center, stretch the floor to the corner, and pull Gobert away from the rim. Though Love won't be around to play that role, the U.S. will be better for it — provided they don't go away from that strategy.
Any team would be hard-pressed to find a better stretch five than Kevin Durant. The former NBA MVP will no doubt play many roles for his country at the Olympics, moonlighting as a lead ball-handler and initiator on offense, as a rim protector and wing-stopper on defense, and as a stretch five in Love's absence. With Durant as a stretch five against France, the U.S. can play a five-out offense, surrounding Durant with whatever combination of guards and wings they want, and effectively rendering Gobert's high-level rim protection useless.
While it would be unfair to portray France as Gobert and no one else — Evan Fournier has consistently performed well for his country and Frankie Ntilikina is a relentless point of attack defender — their other strengths can be more easily matched and topped by the Americans. For France to be successful at the Olympics, Gobert's impact has to be as supersized as his wingspan. Unfortunately, against a small-ball lineup with Durant at center, his impact will be negligible.
France has played the U.S. close recently, losing by three at the 2016 Olympics and upsetting them in 2019, but the latter set the table for what will be a decisive win for the USA on Sunday.
PICK: USA -11.5 (-105)
Over/Under pick
In the group stage at the 2016 Summer Olympics, the U.S., with a roster loaded with bucket-getters, blew every other team out of the water in points per game, averaging 104.8 in five games (no other team averaged more than 89 points per game).
While this year's roster appears to be considerably less stacked, they do still possess a number of elite NBA scorers, including Durant and Damian Lillard. The lack of a playmaking point guard may cause problems down the road, but the U.S. should still be able to fill up the cup with regularity.
Despite having DeAndre Jordan, fresh off consecutive seasons as the first-team All-Defense center, anchoring the defensive unit in 2016, Team USA finished the group stage tied for the sixth-most points allowed. The defense took a backseat for a team that was, rightfully, confident they could simply outscore whoever their opponent was.
While Bam Adebayo and Draymond Green, both of whom should get minutes at center, are better, more versatile defenders than Jordan was in 2016, it's difficult to envision the U.S. differing their approach this time around, especially considering the roster they are bringing. Between the high-level scorers on the USA and the way they should be able to render Rudy Gobert ineffective, take the Over in these two teams' Olympic opener.
PICK: Over 178.5 (-110)
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