Despite losing their first Olympic game since 2004 to begin the 2020 games in Tokyo, the USA are now just a win away from returning to the gold medal game in basketball. Standing in their way of a return to the final game is Australia, who are looking for their first-ever medal in men's basketball.
Can the Boomers keep it close against an ascending U.S. side in the semifinals? Check out our Australia vs. USA picks and predictions for August 5.
Australia vs USA game info
• Location: Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
• Date: Thursday, August 5, 2021
• Time: 12:15 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
Australia vs USA betting tips
- USA -11.5 (-105)
- Under 178.5 (-110)
Read on for complete analysis
Australia vs USA match odds
Australia: +11.5 (-115)
USA: -11.5 (-105)
Total: 178.5
Over 178.5: -110
Under 178.5: -110
Australia vs USA betting preview
Key injuries
Australia: Aron Baynes (Out).
USA: No injuries to report.
Australia vs USA predictions
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Despite the best efforts of Ricky Rubio, who consistently performs at an elite level on the international stage, the U.S. covered a 12.5-point spread as they got by Spain in the quarterfinals. It was touch-and-go for a while, with Spain even approaching a double-digit lead at one point, but ultimately Rubio's 38 points were not enough in a 95-81 loss.
It was considerably easier for the Boomers, who put an exclamation mark on their quarterfinals win over Argentina with a 25-0 run to cap off a 97-59 thrashing. Like fellow semifinalists France and Slovenia, Australia have reached the final four at the Olympics undefeated, with a perfect 4-0 record up to this point.
While Spain's early surge in the quarterfinals was led by Rubio's fantastic play, the U.S.'s inability to get a hold of the game was the result of getting eaten alive on the glass. The Americans' lack of a reliable, traditional big was exploited as Marc Gasol and Willy Hernangomez dwarfed the U.S. in the paint, finishing defensive possessions with rebounds and coming up with second-chance points on the other end.
Though the Americans' lack of size cost them against France and appeared to again against Spain, their fantastic talent on the perimeter will be a boon against the Boomers. That's because, like the U.S., Australia do not have much at all in the interior, after Aron Baynes announced he would miss the remainder of the Olympics with a neck injury.
Australia are on the verge of their first medal because of their best backcourt and wing depth ever, with Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Matisse Thybulle, Matthew Dellavedova, and Dante Exum all playing major roles. However, while that group is strong relative to most international sides, they will be totally overmatched by the talent on Team USA. So much so, that it is difficult to imagine Australia even sticking with the USA.
PICK: USA -11.5 (-105)
Over/Under pick
The Americans' 95-81 win over Spain was the second Under of the tournament for the U.S., following their meltdown against France. They finished the group stage as the second-highest scoring team, and the only other team besides Slovenia to average over 100 points per game.
Australia, meanwhile, are yet to have a game hit the 170-point mark, despite topping 80 points themselves in all four games up to this point. Between Thybulle, Mills, and Dellavedova, the Boomers' point of attack is defended by dogged defenders and, in the case of Thybulle, one of the best defensive players on earth.
The U.S. should be in control in both ends and, crucially, be able to completely limit what Australia can do on the offensive end. These two played to a total of 174 in a warm-up game prior to the Olympics, and unless Damian Lillard and Devin Booker suddenly find their stroke to join Durant and Jayson Tatum in leading the way, bet on them to finish around there again and take the Under.
PICK: Under 178.5 (-110)
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