Finland vs ROC Men's Hockey Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Shutdown Favorites Finnish the Job

We've reached the gold medal game in men's hockey at the Beijing Olympics, with the favored Fins going for their first gold against the ROC. Our Finland vs. ROC picks believe the same formula that's gotten them here will lead them to a win.

Feb 18, 2022 • 16:23 ET • 4 min read
Harri Sateri Finland men's hockey team Olympics
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The gold medal match has been set and will take place Saturday night between the Top 2 betting favorites to win the title in the Russian Olympic Committee and Finland. Finland blanked Slovakia 2-0 as heavy favorites to advance while the Russians needed a dramatic shootout win over the Swedes to play for gold.

Will we see another low-scoring affair with gold on the line and the NHL-sized rink? Can the Russians win back-to-back golds or will Finland finally win their first?

Find out in our free picks and predictions for Finland vs. ROC on February 19.

Finland vs ROC odds

Finland ROC
-115 Moneyline +105
-1.5 (+250) Puck line +1.5 (-320)
Over 4.5 (-120) Total Under 4.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of February 18, 2022.

Finland opened as slight -115 favorites despite ROC entering the tournament as the betting favorites to capture gold. The total is sitting at 4.5 and leaning slightly to the Over. This is the shortest favorite Finland has been all tournament while it marks the first time the Russians have been the betting underdog.

Finland vs ROC predictions

Predictions made on 2/18/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Finland vs ROC game info

Location: Beijing National Indoor Stadium, Beijing, China
Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
Puck drop: 11:10 p.m. ET

Finland vs ROC picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The drama of the semifinals is over and the gold medal game will feature the Top 2 teams in the tournament. The ROC will be looking for their second straight gold medal after their incredible win over Germany in 2018 while the Finns will be looking for their first-ever Olympic gold medal. The Finns have medaled in five of the last seven Olympics while Russia has just three medals since 1994.

Russia come into the finals with the better team on paper but it's safe to say this KHL-loaded ROC team has underachieved through five games. Outside of the Czech game, Russia’s stars have scored just five non-empty-net goals in regulation across four games. They’ll have to snipe against a Finnish team that haven't yielded an even-strength goal over their last four games and have the 5-on-5 game on lockdown. They’re coming off a 2-0 shutout win versus Slovakia and goalie Harri Sateri is becoming a hero.

Sateri plays in the KHL, where he currently owns a 2.02 GAA through 38 games with Novosibirsk Sibir. Over his four starts in the Olympics, the Finnish netminder has a 1.00 GAA with a tournament-leading .962 SV%. The only game the Finns haven’t won in regulation was versus Sweden, where they erased a 3-0 deficit and won in OT. The books are aware that Finland have played better in the tournament and that’s why they’re favored here.

Russia was lucky to get to the finals and dodged some serious bullets in the third period, overtime, and the shootout versus Sweden. For a team that is supposedly loaded with offensive talent, Russia have struggled to finish and facing the tourney’s best goaltender likely won’t help out this ROC offense.

Russia didn't have an easy time putting away Denmark (twice), Sweden, and Switzerland and dropped a 6-5 match to the Czech Republic in the prelims. Finland will be the best team the ROC have seen and after watching the Sweden game, Russia’s offense isn’t much of a threat.

Finland is coming off a game versus an elite goaltender where they scored early, clogged up the small ice, and took zero penalties. Their 5-on-5 play has been epic and they’re a bad matchup for the ROC. 

We like Finland to finally get their first Olympic gold in men’s ice hockey and a 3-1 final is certainly in play.

Prediction: Finland ML (-115)

Covers hockey betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

If you’ve been paying attention to the previous games then you’re fully aware that goals are at a premium here in Beijing. The smaller ice surface has created a logjam of skaters in the middle of the ice and teams are comfortable with allowing O-zone time as long as the puck is being kept to the outside. 

Gaining the offensive zone with possession is nearly impossible as every team has been sitting back and waiting for their opponents to make a mistake. If you’re looking for end-to-end action and odd-man rushes, this is not the event for you. 

Finland have been so strong with the lead through five games and have given up just three goals when leading. In all, Finland have been leading more than 50% of the competition and haven't yet lost. Their 2-0 win versus Slovakia was defensively perfect while they dispatched Switzerland 5-1 in the elimination round. Comparatively, the ROC had to sweat out a 1-0 win over the Swiss in the preliminaries. 

We doubt Finland messes around and scores more than three goals unless empty-netters are nice to them. Russia have been stingy and are riding 6-foot-8 tender Ivan Fedotov, who has started each game and has 1.54 GAA and a .943 SV%. He is a massive human being who takes up most of the net even when going down.

Finland haven't allowed an even-strength goal since their opening game and are coming into Saturday’s finals having not taken a penalty versus Slovakia. Russia will be hard-pressed to create any offense, especially against Sateri. 

There is no reason for this game not to emulate the semifinals. 

Prediction: Under 4.5 (+100)

Best bet

Finland’s team total of 2.5 is paying +140 for the Over but their race to three goals prop is priced at +200. We aren't expecting two-way scoring in this game and if Finland get that important early lead, the ROC could open themselves up to the counter if they start pushing. We saw this in the ROC/Czech Republic game, where the Russians gave up multiple goals trying to cut into their deficit. If there is one team that sells out offensively, it’s the Russians.

We aren’t expecting fireworks but could easily see a 3-1 Finland final with an empty-netter. Even if this game goes to extra time tied at 2-2, this race to three goals at +200 bet is still a live ticket.

Getting an extra 60 points in what seems like the same bet for a projected low-scoring affair is an Olympic bargain. 

Prediction: Finland race to three goals (+200)

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