All eyes will be fixed on the ice Sunday morning as Canada and the United States face off for gold in the 2026 men’s Olympic hockey final.
My Canada vs. USA prediction and betting picks break down why a repeat of last year's 4 Nations Face-Off final is in store at prediction markets like Kalshi.
Canada vs USA prediction
| Result | Price | |
|---|---|---|
 Canada to win |
Yes - 53 cents | Trade at Kalshi |
On Kalshi, a contract priced at 53 cents implies a 53% probability of Canada winning the Gold Medal game.
In betting terms, you’re effectively “buying” a win for $0.53, equivalent to -113 in traditional American odds.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Canada vs USA Odds
My prediction: Canada - Yes (53 cents at Kalshi)
Canada is the highest-scoring team in the tournament and has also posted the best goal differential at +19.
That's particularly impressive because it has also faced a more difficult schedule. Four of the five games Canada has played were against teams that ranked sixth or higher in slot shot share.
Of the United States' five opponents, only Sweden (fourth) ranked in the Top 6, and the Swedes took the United States to overtime despite playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Canada has posted better results while facing a tougher path. Look for it to claim gold.
How to watch Canada vs USA
| Location | Milano Santagiulia Arena, Milan, Italy |
| Date | Sunday, February 22, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 8:10 a.m. ET |
| TV | CBC, NBC |
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts," which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on Canada vs USA at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
