The Canadians and Finns both received a wake-up call in their quarterfinal overtime wins, and the two teams will meet for the chance to advance to the gold medal game at the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics on Friday, February 20.
My top Canada vs. Finland predictions and free betting picks expect goals to be at a premium with it all on the line for the two hockey powerhouses.
Canada vs Finland prediction
Canada vs Finland Best bet: Under 5.5 (-120)
Defense has been the calling card for the Canadians and Finns, with the teams respectively allowing just six and seven goals across their four games.
Despite the Canadian question marks in goal, No. 1 Jordan Binnington has turned in a .922 SV%, and Finland starter Juuse Saros has been even better with a .938 mark.
Both teams have played a particularly strong possession game while also allowing the second- and third-fewest slot shots per game.
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Canada vs Finland same-game parlay
Under 5.5
Finland +1.5
Statistically, the Finns and Canadians have incredibly similar numbers through four games, and there’s a strong case Finland has been on an upward trajectory after a surprise 4-1 loss to Slovakia in the tournament opener.
I expect Finland to clog the neutral zone and lean on its wealth of defensively responsible NHLers to hang around and keep this game tight for 60 minutes, especially with key Canadians playing injured or potentially not at all.
Canada vs Finland SGP
- Under 5.5
- Finland +1.5
Canada vs Finland odds
- Moneyline: Canada -450 | Finland +320
- Puck Line: Canada -1.5 (-145) | Finland +1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-110) | Under 5.5 (-120)
How to watch Canada vs Finland
| Location | Milano Santagiulia Arena, Milan, Italy |
| Date | Friday, February 20, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 10:40 a.m. ET |
| TV | CBC, NBC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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