Team Canada will kick off its gold medal defense on Saturday as they take on Team Germany, who will have already played Finland the day before.
The big news out of Canada's camp is the hand injury to captain Kirby Dach. Dach left the third period of Canada’s 1-0 win over Team Russia in exhibition play with an apparent hand injury and immediately left the ice. He has been ruled out for the tournament as Canada will have to move on from its most talented forward.
Goalie Devon Levi posted a 23-save shutout against the Russians, which gives this Canadian team a lot of confidence considering there wasn’t a penciled-in No. 1 netminder heading into Edmonton.
Canada has faced Germany four times in the tournament over the last 10 years. The Canucks won each meeting 4-1, 4-0, 7-2, and 9-3. Team Germany was also forced to quarantine up to the 24th thanks to a COVID-19 outbreak inside the bubble. The Canadian players haven't played a meaningful game since March while many European leagues have been in full swing since October.
Here are our best World Junior Hockey free picks and predictions for Team Germany vs. Team Canada, with puck drop at 6 p.m. ET.
Team Germany vs Team Canada Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Team Germany: None to report.
Team Canada: Kirby Dach C (Out).
Betting Trend to Know
Canada has played 11 games over the last two tournaments and has won by six or more goals just twice.
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Puck Line Pick
Team Canada enters the 2021 WJHC as the odds on favorite to win the gold medal while Team Germany is tied for the third-highest odds to take it all. One of the bigger stories here is that the Germans had eight positive tests after entering the bubble in Edmonton and needed to quarantine right up to December 24. They then have to play Team Finland on Christmas day before meeting Team Canada just 24 hours later on Boxing Day.
Canada has won the last four matchups by a combined score of 24-6 but has failed to cover five goals in the previous two meetings. Germany has one of the most improved hockey programs on the globe and is starting to turn out handfuls of high-end prospects.
Possibly losing its best player and captain in Dach is a big blow to Canada as he had the most NHL experience on the roster. Even with the possible tournament-ending injury, the line has stayed firm at -5.5 after opening at -4.5.
Despite a roster constructed of 20 first-round picks from the previous two NHL entry drafts, Team Canada managed one goal against the Russians in exhibition play as a lack of ice time is bound to affect the chemistry of Canada’s talented skaters.
Team Germany comes into the tournament with one of the youngest rosters in the bubble with more than half its players being born in 2002. They will be led by forwards John-Jason Peterka and Tim Stützle. Both players were selected inside the Top 35 – with Stützle going third overall – in last year’s draft and will be asked to do the heavy lifting offensively this year, especially with forward Lukas Reichel forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test. This is also a Germany team whose players have likely been playing in professional leagues in Europe this winter, while most of the Canadians have been idle since March.
Canada will win, no doubt, but by six goals is asking a lot, especially with the lack of full-speed hockey they’ve played this year and a one-goal performance in the exhibition game. We liked the line at -4.5 but at -5.5 with zero chances of empty-netters up four or five goals, we have to pass. We are going to wait until gameday to hit the German side as Christmas bets will likely favor Canada no matter what number it is and at -143, it’s worth the wait.
PREDICTION: Germany +5.5 (-143)
Over/Under Pick
Team Canada played a tightly contested game against Team Germany at last year’s WJHC as Canada walked away with a 4-1 win—which included an empty-netter. The Under 7.5 hit in five of Canada’s seven games last year and six of Germany’s seven games.
Now that it looks like Canada has a starting goalie they trust, after Levi’s shutout versus Russia in exhibition play, Team Canada shouldn’t have a problem limiting their opponents’ scoring chances. Blanking Russia is no easy task as the Russians scored 10 goals over two games against the Canadians last year.
The host nation will likely be one of the highest-scoring teams in the tournament, but their first real game after nine months is a spot where we don’t expect everything to click offensively right away. Team Canada looked sharp defensively on Wednesday, which could mean a tough go for the Germans to pot more than one or two goals.
The Germans also have to play Team Finland on Friday so they will be coming into Saturday’s game more up-to-speed than Canada. This could result in a slower-paced first period as Team Canada tries to find its legs and build chemistry between its newly formed lines.
All the tournament’s officials will also be Canadian. This doesn’t mean an advantage for the home team, but we could possibly see fewer ticky-tack penalties called, which could result in fewer powerplays for both teams.
Eight goals are just too many for us, considering Germany’s team total of Over 1.5 is +150. This line has gone from O7.5 (-120) to O7.5 (-139) and will likely be bet heavily by the public leading up to puck drop. If you’re thinking of the Under, like us, maybe wait until gameday before firing away.
PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-115)
Team Germany vs Team Canada Betting Card
- Germany +5.5 (-143)
- Under 7.5 (-115)
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Where Can I Bet on the 2021 WJHC?
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