Stars vs Flames Game 7 Picks and Predictions: Calgary Proves Too Much For Underdog Stars

The Dallas Stars have done well to force a Game 7 in their first-round matchup with the Calgary Flames. However, winning such game on the road against the postseason's best netminder should prove too tall a task — as our NHL betting picks explain.

May 15, 2022 • 14:25 ET • 4 min read
Jacob Markstrom Calgary Flames NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Calgary Flames are going to try and take advantage of home ice in Game 7, but the Dallas Stars have already won a game at the Saddledome and will attempt to get another victory on the road. 

The elimination game for one of these teams should be a tight, physical battle with an emphasis on defense and goaltending. 

Can the Flames take care of business in Calgary or will Dallas pull off the upset? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Sunday’s Game 7 between the Stars and Flames. 

Stars vs Flames Game 7 odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Flames opened as the -227 favorites, but the number has dropped as low as -189 at several sportsbooks. The Stars began at +180 but have also come down to anywhere from +155 to +168. The total opened at 5.5 and stood pat, but BetRivers set it at 5 with the Over at -139 and the Under +120. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Stars vs Flames Game 7 predictions

Predictions made on 5/15/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Stars vs Flames Game 7 info

Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
Date: Sunday, May 15, 2022
Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, ESPN2

Stars vs Flames series odds

Stars: +160
Flames: -190

Stars vs Flames Game 7 betting preview

Key injuries

Stars: Braden Holtby G (Out), Luke Glendening C (Questionable).
Flames: Christopher Tanev D (Questionable), Brett Ritchie F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Stars vs Flames head-to-head record

Stars: 3-3 SU, 12 goals for.
Flames: 3-3 SU, 12 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under has hit in four of the six games in this series. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Flames.

Stars vs Flames Game 7 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Puck line analysis

The Calgary Flames' first line of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Matthew Tkachuk has been dominant as expected. They have 14 points, but the second line needs to perform better. 

Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Tyler Toffoli should have more points than they've collectively accumulated. Toffoli, who was acquired midseason from the Montreal Canadiens, has no goals and just one assist in the series.

Calgary has been able to get to Game 7, but if there is no scoring from the second line, the first line might not be able to shoulder the load. Dallas has been keying on the first line and so far that strategy has worked. 

But while the Stars have won a game in Calgary in the series, winning a Game 7 in Alberta might be too much of an ask. The key for Dallas will be to score first and control the game, as the team that's scored first has won five of the series' six games.

Calgary's -189 moneyline lacks value, making the puck line look way more enticing. The Flames' last two wins in this series have come by two goals — back them to do so again tonight at this juicy plus-money number.

Prediction: Flames -1.5 (+140 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

The Under has cashed in four of the six games this series and should do so again on Sunday. The two games that went Over only did so by half a goal.

Game 7s are usually marked by low scoring. The three series-deciding games on Saturday all hit the Under. Two of them – Kings-Oilers and Lightning-Maple Leafs – were never in doubt, with 2-0 and 2-1 results on totals of 6 and 6.5.  

You also have to look at the goaltending in this series. Both Dallas’ Jake Oettinger and Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom have been masterful.

Markstrom leads the playoffs in goals against average at 1.52, while Oettinger is fourth at 1.69. These guys also lead the playoffs in save percentage (.954).

Don’t expect much of a change from Oettinger or Markstrom on Sunday,as both have carried their respective teams to this final showdown.

The line opened at 5.5, and while many sportsbooks have stayed there, the odds are not that attractive. The better play is to drop it to 5, giving you odds of +120.

Prediction: Under 5 (+120 at BetRivers)

Best bet

As effective as Dallas has been, pushing this first-round matchup to a Game 7 as a huge serious underdog, the dream ends Sunday night. The last team to get into the playoffs simply doesn’t have enough gas left in the tank. 

They played an incredible game on Friday, but asking them to repeat that performance on the road against a Calgary team that has the best goaltender in the playoffs, is just too much to overcome. 

The Flames are 5-1 in the last six in their building and have won 33 of their last 48 as the favorite. 

The Stars are 1-5 in their last six road games as the underdog and should struggle to score against Calgary's red-hot goaltending.

I believe Markstrom makes up for his shaky performance in Game 6 with one of his best games on Sunday. 

Pick: Stars team total Under 1.5 (+155 at DraftKings)

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