Connor McDavid Odds and Props: Don't Expect Stats Galore in Game 7

Connor McDavid is the best player in the world, and he's proven it time and time again this postseason. He'll be sure to dictate play when on the ice, but our Game 7 picks aren't expecting a big night statistically for No. 97.

Kyle LaRusic - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Kyle LaRusic • Publishing Editor
Jun 24, 2024 • 11:27 ET • 4 min read
Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The biggest NHL game in 30 years goes down tonight, and it's only fitting I supply my fellow hockey bettors with some NHL picks focused on the best NHL player in 30 years.

Connor McDavid has 11 points this series despite being held off the sheet twice — because of course he does — but I don't see that happening for a third time. Let's get this party started!

Connor McDavid prop picks for June 24

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Connor McDavid best bets

Under 3.5 shots (-140)

"Really... I can't believe you're giving out Unders for Game 7,". Yeah yeah, I know it isn't always fun to take Unders on the best player in the sport, but there's a good reason alright? 

Connor McDavid hasn't tallied more than two shots on net over his last three games, and he even put up a big donut in the shot column during Game 6. In fact, he's only eclipsed this number twice this series — once in Game 1 and again in Game 3 when he was doing anything he could to avoid a 0-3 hole.

Although the dip in shots comes from McDavid focusing more on setting his teammates up, it has to do with the suffocating play of the Florida Panthers. The Edmonton Oilers have 10 goals over the last two, but that's on just 45 total shots with three empty netters and an NHL24-like 22.2% shooting percentage.

Florida is excellent at suppressing shots, and in Game 7, every body will be thrown in the way of any rubber sent in Bobrovsky's direction. This is what needs to happen when your No. 1 netminder has seemingly lost his mojo, and with shots expected to be down across the board in a Game 7 that will come down to the wire, it's hard to picture McDavid getting four through.

Connor McDavid prop: Under 3.5 shots (-140 at BET99

Under 0.5 power-play points (-115)

The Oilers' man advantage was terrific coming into the Stanley Cup Final, but the Panthers have been able to do their best in shutting that shit down. Edmonton is just 3-for-23 (13%) while a man up, and the Oilers have only capitalized on the PP in two games this series.

For context, the Oilers entered this series with a 37.3% power play through the first three rounds. While that was sky high compared to their regular season mark of 26.3%, and regression was surely due, a drop off to 13% is cause for concern. 

Then there's also the Game 7 narrative surrounding the refs swallowing their whistles to let the players dictate the outcome. Florida is a very aggressive team and will test the patience of the stripes tonight, but if they do opt to "let the boys play", it'll be hard for McDavid to score on a power play if the opportunity never comes.

Even if the Panthers land themselves in the box, I trust their 87.8% PK to keep things quiet while a man down.

Connor McDavid prop: Under 0.5 power-play points (-115 at BET99)

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