A busy NHL betting board on Martin Luther King Jr. is highlighted by an East Division matchup between the Buffalo Sabres and the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Flyers are coming off back-to-back convincing wins over rival Pittsburgh, but are without their best player, Sean Couturier, for the next few weeks. Despite the injury, NHL odds have Philadelphia favored at -156 against a Buffalo team searching for its first win of the year, with the total set at 6.
Here are our best free NHL picks and predictions for Sabres vs. Flyers on Monday, January 18 with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers Betting Preview
Injuries
Sabres: Kyle Okposo F (Questionable).
Flyers: Sean Couturier F (Out), Shayne Gostisbehere D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 8-2-1 in the Flyers' last 11 games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs. Flyers.
Moneyline Pick
Philadelphia kicked off its season with back-to-back games against in-state rival Pittsburgh, stomping the Penguins 6-3 and 5-2. The Flyers lost star forward Sean Couturier just two shifts into Friday's game, but that didn't slow down Philly, as Travis Konecny posted three goals and an assist to power the offense.
Despite the two wins, a deeper look shows there was actually a fair bit of luck on the Flyers' side. The Flyers had just 55 shot attempts (shots on net + blocked shots + shots that missed the net) at even strength in those two games, compared to 79 shot attempts against. That 41.55 percent Corsi For rating is the third-worst mark in the league, and also resulted in Philadelphia having an xGF (expected even-strength goals for) of just 2.58 per game—below their seven total actual ES goals scored.
Their Fenwick For percentage in those games was 34 and 43.9 percent as well, indicating that the Flyers not only generated fewer shot opportunities, but simply did not have the puck nearly as often as their opponent.
Nonetheless, the Flyers are off to a 2-0 start, while the Sabres are the only team in the East Division with a zero still in the win column. Buffalo started the year with two games against the Capitals, losing one in a high-scoring affair (6-4) and then dropping a defensive battle (2-1).
The Sabres held the edge in Corsi rating in both games, with their downfall on Thursday being poor goaltending from Carter Hutton and Friday it was a hot Capitals netminder that stymied Buffalo.
For tonight's game, the Sabres will go with Linus Ullmark, who stopped 19 of 21 shots on Friday and should again give Buffalo solid goaltending after posting a .915 save percentage last year, while Philadelphia will again send out Carter Hart, one of the NHL's rising young star netminders.
With both teams likely to get strong performances in net, this comes down to the action on the ice. As mentioned above, the Sabres actually had the edge in generating offense through two losses, while the Flyers were quite lucky. Add in Buffalo being desperate to not go 0-3 to start the year and I'll back the Sabres at a nice ML price.
PREDICTION: Buffalo ML (+140)
Over/Under Pick
Yes, the Flyers scored 11 goals (seven at 5 on 5) in two games against Pittsburgh, but as the advanced stats show, they expected to score about three goals in each contest. The Sabres, on the flip side, gave up six even-strength goals in two matchups with Washington but has an xGA (expected goals against) of just 1.4 tallies per game—in large part to the poor play of Hutton, who's role for this game will be "chilling on the bench with a baseball cap on."
Essentially, the Flyers scored more than the analytics suggested they should, while the Sabres have given up more goals than the stats say they should. Yes, advanced analytics aren't everything, but this seems like some strong outliers early in the year—and with two good goalies in between the pipes I'll side with the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 6 (-125)
Sabres vs Flyers Betting Card
- Buffalo ML (+140)
- Under 6 (-125)
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