NHL betting is a long-term strategy with lots of variance game to game. That became crystal clear on Friday night with the 2019 Stanley Cup champions getting crushed by a team they easily defeated just two days earlier.
We try to filter out those early-season outliers as we dig into longer-term trends and analytics and get our hockey wagers back in the winning column.
So let's break down the NHL odds and bring you our best free NHL picks and predictions for Monday, January 18.
NHL Picks for Today
San Jose Sharks vs St. Louis Blues
The Sharks come into this game after splitting their first two games of the season to the Arizona Coyotes. The St. Louis Blues also split their opening series against the Avalanche and put in a Jekyll-and-Hyde performance, beating the Avs 4-1 on Wednesday before getting clobbered 8-0 on Friday.
Don't put too much stock in that rout, however: Colorado is the Stanley Cup favorite and the Blues have proved over the last two years that they are a very good team, regardless of one god-awful game.
Another factor to consider is that the Blues were incredibly bad on special teams against the Avs, surrendering six power-play goals and going 0-6 when they had the man advantage. They were one of the best power-play teams in the league last season and while they struggled on the penalty kill, they were still nowhere near as bad as their performance against Colorado indicates.
A power-play percentage of 0 and killing penalties at a 45-percent rate are simply not sustainable numbers for even the worst of teams, so expect a quality squad like St. Louis to return to the mean sooner rather than later—and the Sharks might be the perfect opponent for St. Louis to get back on track.
San Jose is coming off a brutal campaign where age finally caught up to it. The Sharks finished 29th in the league in point percentage and ranked among the Bottom-5 teams in the league in both goals scored and goals allowed.
While getting a healthy Erik Karlsson back on the blueline helps, the Sharks still have major holes throughout their lineup, beginning in nets, where Martin Jones has already surrendered eight goals on 61 shots. Jones had a 3.00 goals-against average and an .896 save percentage last year. While Devan Dubnyk was brought in to give him competition, Dubnyk is coming off an even worse season, posting a 3.35 GAA in 30 games with the Wild.
Expect the Blues to rebound from that abysmal performance against the Avs and take advantage of a shaky goaltending situation with the Sharks. Back St. Louis on the puck line.
PREDICTION: St. Louis Puck Line -1.5 (+140)
Montreal Canadiens vs Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers are coming off an embarrassing 5-1 loss to the Canadiens on Saturday night and will be looking to bounce back with a better performance tonight. Edmonton continues to have major questions when it comes to goaltending, defense and forward depth but they still have two of the best offensive talents in the world in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.
Draisaitl led the league in scoring last season with 110 points in 71 games while finishing fourth in goals scored with 43. While the German has yet to tickle the twine in three games this season (although he has picked up five helpers), he could be overdue.
Keep in mind that over the last two seasons (a span of 160 regular season and postseason games), he has had only two scoring droughts longer than three games: one slump of five games and another of six.
After just one shot on net in each of Edmonton's first two contests of the year, Draisaitl had six shots on Saturday against Carey Price and the Habs. We're expecting the Art Ross winner to get back to his scoring ways on Monday and backing him at +120 to put the puck in the net.
PREDICTION: Leon Draisaitl to score a goal (+120)
Arizona Coyotes vs Vegas Golden Knights
Is there anywhere else more fitting than Las Vegas to end our evening of hockey bets? The Coyotes enter Sin City coming off a 5-3 win over the Sharks but mustered just eight high-danger chances at even strength in the contest.
Arizona struggled to score last season, averaging just 2.71 goals per game, and they should be in for more of the same this year after they allowed Taylor Hall to leave in free agency after just 35 games in the Desert. The Coyotes will once again be heavily reliant on the goaltending tandem of Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta, which remains one of the best duos in the league.
The Golden Knights opened their season with a pair of wins against the Ducks but managed to score just one goal in regulation on Saturday.
Vegas also has a very strong goaltending duo and is expected to start Robin Lehner in nets tonight. Lehner has a 1.94 GAA and .921 SV% in 20 games for Vegas (regular season and playoffs) since being acquired last February.
The Knights have gone 8-1-1 to the Under in their last 10 games overall, while the Under has also cashed in four straight games in the head-to-head. Expect the goalies to shine tonight and take the Under 5.5.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (+105)
Top NHL Consensus for Today
Want to know who today's biggest NHL betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top NHL consensus picks.
Saturday's picks: 1-4 (-2.4 units)
Season record to date: 5-9 (-2.09 units)
NHL Betting Card for January 18
- St. Louis Puck Line -1.5 (+140)
- Leon Draisaitl to score a goal (+120)
- Arizona/Las Vegas Under 5.5 (+105)
NHL Parlays
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL betting picks, you could win $98.24 on a $10 bet?
Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where Can I Bet on the NHL?
You can bet on NHL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NHL moneylines, puck lines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NHL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NHL odds in your area.
