Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Samsonov in for Busy Night vs Flyers

Prop bet #1: Saves aplenty for Sammy

The Philadelphia Flyers rank fourth in shots per game (33.4), and the Toronto Maple Leafs will play game No. 2 without No. 1 defenseman Morgan Rielly on Thursday. With Toronto also allowing a healthy 30.2 shots per game, I’m anticipating starter Ilya Samsonov to see enough rubber to clear this total.

Samsonov has also re-found his game with a .927 save percentage across his past six starts, and he’s been significantly sharper at Scotiabank Arena since joining Toronto last season. The Russian tendy sports a solid .915 SV% and 0.26 goals saved above average on home ice compared to .897 and -0.41 marks on the highway.

Additionally, I value these Ilya Samsonov odds because the Flyers have seen an uptick in shots per game out of the holiday break (34.2 per game) and registered at least 30 shots in 16 of 21 games.

Ilya Samsonov prop: Over 26.5 saves (-115 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: No dice against Oil

Not only are the Edmonton Oilers the best team in the league since head coach Kris Knoblach was hired, they’re also playing high-end defense. The Oilers rank fourth in Corsi For percentage (54.6) and fifth in goals against (2.06) at 5-on-5, and Edmonton has also posted a fifth-ranked 85.7 penalty-kill percentage.

Add No. 1 goalie Stuart Skinner morphing into a Vezina Trophy odds candidate with a .923 save percentage and 2.13 GAA, and the St. Louis Blues offense will have its hands full Thursday.

I’m targeting these Brayden Schenn odds because he’s having the best scoring stretch of the season and statistical correction looms.

He’s skating on a new-look line with Jake Neighbours and Kasperi Kapanen, and the trio have a miserable 35.1 CF% and 26.6 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 across 91:31 of shared ice time this season. Additionally, Schenn sports an unsustainably high 3.2 points per 60 and 18.5 shooting percentage across the past 14 games, which are both way above his 1.46 and 10.8 marks through the first 38 games of the season.

Brayden Schenn prop: Under 0.5 points (-135 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Quinn for the win

This is a good matchup for Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes to pad the shots column. The Detroit Red Wings allow the fifth-most shots (32.37), ninth-most attempts (64.07) per 60 minutes on the road, and the eighth-most shots per game (8.94) to defensemen overall. Additionally, the Wings sport the fourth-lowest Corsi For percentage (44.6%) at 5-on-5 on the highway.

With Hughes boasting a high-end 55.7 CF% at 5-on-5, the ice should be tilted in his favor Thursday, and he also has started 59.2% of his 5-on-5 shifts in the offensive zone.

I also value these Quinn Hughes odds because his shot volume skyrockets on home ice. He’s recorded 6.87 shots per 60 minutes and 2.79 per game at Rogers Arena compared to 4.85 and 2.0 marks on the road.

Quinn Hughes prop: Over 2.5 shots (+115 at Bet99)