Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Rodrigues Lets it Rip Against Dallas

Prop bet #1: Vintage Vasilevskiy

This will be Andrei Vasilevskiy’s sixth start since returning from microdiscectomy surgery for a lumbar disc herniation in late September. And, the two-time All-Star finally looked the part again during Monday’s 4-0 shutout over the formidable Dallas Stars.

If there was rust, it’s been shaken.

Still, the primary reason I targeted his saves prop after looking through the Andrei Vasilevskiy odds is because the Pittsburgh Penguins shoot in bunches. Pittsburgh ranks third in shots (33.2) and fifth in shot attempts (65.8) per 60 minutes, and they rank eighth in Corsi For percentage (52.4) at 5-on-5.

Additionally, I think the reason it's not trading at a higher number is because Pittsburgh and the Tampa Bay Lightning played Nov. 30, and Vasilevskiy saved 25 of 28 shots. However, simply put, that was a funky game. 

Tampa Bay stormed out to a two-goal lead and allowed just five shots in the first period, and then Pittsburgh rebounded and scored three unanswered. After the Penguins grabbed the 3-2 lead 2:49 into the third period, they recorded only three shots through the final 17:11 of the game.

I’m not expecting to see a repeat of those extreme momentum swings during Wednesday’s rematch.

Andrei Vasilevskiy prop: Pick Over 26.5 saves (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Hot rod Rodrigues

There’s been a huge uptick in Evan Rodrigues’ shot volume, and I think it’s largely sustainable because of his chemistry with linemates Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. The trio is driving five-on-five possession with a 58.5 Corsi For percentage across 180:42 of shared ice time, and Rodrigues has 27 shots and 40 attempts through his past nine games.

Rodrigues’ current 9.3 shots and 16.5 attempts per 60 minutes are right in line with his 10.2 and 16.7 marks over the past two seasons, too. 

Additionally, while my ratings have the Dallas Stars defense ranked sixth best, limiting opposing shots hasn’t been a particular strength. The Stars are surrendering the 12th-most shots per 60 minutes (31.2).

As a result, the matchup isn’t as daunting for this betting market. And, I value landing plus-money on the Evan Rodrigues odds surrounding this number considering he's cleared this total in six of his past nine games.

Evan Rodrigues prop: Over 2.5 shots (+128 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Vegas brings scoring blues

I’m going right back to the St. Louis Blues Under 2.5 goals team total after the Vegas Golden Knights limited them to eight high-danger scoring chances and just six at five-on-five during Monday’s meeting. And, once again, BetRivers has an off-market offering of +100 odds for the St. Louis Under compared to DraftKings hanging -115.

The venue might have changed but the script isn’t going to.

The Golden Knights have the third-best defense in my ratings, and the Blues are tied for the fourth-worst offense. Vegas has surrendered the fewest goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and it’s now boasting the highest team save percentage (.393) following Monday’s win. 

St. Louis just doesn’t bring enough to the table. The Blues rank 29th in both Corsi For percentage (45.2%) and expected goals per 60 (2.43) at 5-on-5. Vegas’ 86.7% PK also ranks fifth.

St. Louis Blues team total prop: Under 2.5 (+100 at BetRivers)