It's a busy Thursday night on the ice, with 11 games on the docket for Oct. 15, and I've got three NHL player props to target throughout the action.
Toronto Maple Leafs winger Kirill Marchenko and Utah Mammoth forward Dylan Guenther headline tonight's NHL picks.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Filip Hronek 1+ points - No |
57% |
 Dylan Guenther 3+ shots |
53% |
 Kirill Marchenko 1+ goals |
33% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Filip Hronek 1+ points - No
Vancouver Canucks defenseman Filip Hronek’s numbers are misleading, as he recorded multi-point performances in consecutive games to open the season.
Since then, Hronek has been limited to 0.8 points per 60 minutes, while his underlying 40.3% Corsi For percentage and 40.8% expected goals percentage at five-on-five are concerning.
To make matters worse, the Florida Panthers have allowed the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes and rank sixth with a 55.2 CF% at five-on-five.
This Under is in play to 60%.
- Matchup: Canucks vs. Panthers
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
- TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
Prop pick #2: Dylan Guenther 3+ shots
Utah Mammoth winger Dylan Guenther has registered 24 shots on 54 attempts through seven games after ranking eighth in shots per 60 minutes last season. He’s the go-to shooter on Utah’s top power-play unit and also boasts an impressive 57.4 CF% at five-on-five.
The Edmonton Oilers rank 19th in CF% and 26th in shot share at five-on-five, so the matchup checks out, too.
Guenther to record three or more shots is playable up to 56%.
- Matchup: Mammoth vs. Oilers
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
- TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
Goal scorer pick: Kirill Marchenko
Toronto Maple Leafs winger Kirill Marchenko has been dangerous, generating 2.08 expected goals and 11 individual high-danger scoring chances while skating in a top-six role and seeing time on the No. 1 power-play unit.
Those strong underlying numbers have translated to just one goal and a 5.9% shooting percentage.
Combine Marchenko's prominent offensive role with a 13.6% shooting percentage across his first four NHL seasons, and he’s a prime candidate to find the back of the net against a Buffalo Sabres team allowing 3.57 goals per game and sporting the fifth-worst team save percentage.
I recommend Marchenko to score at up to 35%.
- Matchup: Sabres vs. Maple Leafs
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
- TV: MSG-B, TSN4
- Prop picks: 12-9, +7.44 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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