The Battle of Pennsylvania moves to the City of Brotherly Love tonight after the Philadelphia Flyers took down the Pittsburgh Penguins in overtime on Saturday night. It was the first comeback win of the season for the Flyers, who trailed 1-0 and 2-1 in the eventual victory.
The Flyers have now gone past regulation in two straight games and three of their last four. They're 2-1-3 in their last six after a five-game winning streak. The Penguins have also been up and down recently with a 2-2-2 record in their last six games. NHL odds have Philly positioned as home underdogs despite the weekend victory.
Can the Flyers sweep the home-and-home against the Penguins? Read on for our Penguins vs. Flyers NHL picks for Monday, December 4.
Penguins vs Flyers odds
Penguins vs Flyers predictions
One of the things driving the Philadelphia Flyers' success this season is shot differential. They're sixth in the league with 32.9 shots per game and fifth with 27.9 shots against. Philadelphia has been a dominant 5-on-5 team with 54.11% of the shot share and 53.64% of the expected goals for share, both of which are Top-6 marks in the league.
The Flyers have a few players up and down their lineup who fire the puck on net with regularity. Owen Tippett leads the team with 82 shots, but his shots on goal prop is juiced up a bit too much — although a ladder for his alternate SOG totals isn't a bad idea.
Tonight, though, we're taking a look at Cam Atkinson, who is second on the team with 76 shots in 24 games. He was held to just two shots in Pittsburgh on Saturday night, but that should change in Philadelphia.
Atkinson has 41 shots in 12 home games opposed to 35 shots in 12 road games. That may only be half a shot per game, but one shot makes all the difference. It's also worth noting that the Penguins aren't exactly the best at limiting shots on goal. They allow the 12th-most per game at 31.4 and have allowed at least 33 in seven of their last eight games.
The veteran forward has gone Over 2.5 shots in 10 of 12 home games this season, including six games with four or more shots. Overall, he’s had three or more shots in 17 of 24 contests.
Taking him to go Over 3.5 shots at +188 (FanDuel) wouldn’t be a bad ladder option at all.
My best bet: Cam Atkinson Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at DraftKings)
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Penguins vs Flyers same-game parlay
We’re starting our parlay off with our best bet and taking Atkinson to score a goal as well.
Atkinson is tied for the Flyers' team lead with 24 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 play. Over the last six games, he's had 10 in all situations but only a secondary assist to show for it.
Parlaying Atkinson to go Over 2.5 shots on goal with him to score gets us up to +290 on the two-leg parlay.
After that, I wouldn’t mind adding in the Flyers moneyline, but that would only bring the parlay to +510. Instead, we’re going to go negatively correlated a bit with the Under 6.5 to get us to +856 — adding both the Flyers ML and the Under 6.5 is +1,295 if you’re into that.
Saturday night's game went Over 6.5 goals, but only barely. It was scoreless after one, tied 1-1 after two, and the Flyers held a 3-2 lead into the final minute.
Flyers backup Sam Ersson played well on Saturday night and they should see a slight uptick in net with Carter Hart projected to start tonight.
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Penguins vs Flyers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Flyers opened as +110 underdogs even after beating the Penguins on the road on Saturday night. The odds haven't moved much with the Flyers between +105 (BetMGM) and +110 (DraftKings) on the moneyline. In turn, the Penguins are still around -130 favorites between -125 (BetMGM) and -134 (BetRivers)
As for the total, there is some variance across the board. You can get Over 6.5 (+102 via DraftKings) and Under 6.5 (-115 via BetMGM), or BetRivers is offering Over 6 (-124) and Under 6 (+102).
As alluded to above, I’m on the Flyers and the Under 6.5 tonight in Philadelphia.
Penguins vs Flyers betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Flyers.
Penguins vs Flyers game info
|Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
|Monday, December 4, 2023
|7:00 p.m. ET
|SN-Pittsburgh, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Penguins vs Flyers latest injuries
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