The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens meet at Bell Centre on Saturday night in a battle of bitter Original Six rivals.
This is the second of four regular-season meetings between these teams, and the first battle since the regular-season opener back on October 12 at this very same venue.
Montreal picked up a 4-3 win against Toronto behind Jake Allen, who edged Matt Murray to help the Habs cash as a big underdog.
Can the Leafs exact a little revenge against the Canadiens, or will Montreal be able to make it Deux for Deux this season against the Buds? I break it all down in my best NHL picks and predictions below.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens best odds
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens picks and predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs have picked up the pace lately, including a 4-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets last time out. Toronto has registered five victories in the past six games overall, and the offense has been clicking once again.
Toronto has managed three or more goals in five of the past six games while going for 3+ goals in 11 of the previous 13 contests.
Montreal was punished 6-2 by the visiting Florida Panthers on Thursday. The Canadiens are projected to use Samuel Montembeault (9-8-2, 3.21 GAA, .909 SV%), while the Maple Leafs have confirmed Ilya Samsonov (14-4-1, 2.18 GAA, .920 SV%, 2 SO).
Montembeault had been cruising along lately, allowing three or fewer goals in five straight starts from January 9-17 before his former team, the Panthers, dented him for five goals on 33 shots. He was pulled after two periods, so on the positive, he should be a little more rested for Saturday's contest.
Samsonov stopped 37 of the 38 shots he faced against the Jets on Thursday and he is now 3-1-1 with a 2.12 GAA and .921 SV% in four starts and a relief appearance since the ball dropped to ring in 2023.
The Canadiens have really been a thorn in the side of the Maple Leafs in recent seasons, and the home side is actually 5-0 in the past five meetings. While Toronto has been the hotter team of late, you have to stick with the home side in this rivalry matchup. As such, the puck line play makes the most sense here.
My best bet: Canadiens +1.5 (-105 at Caesars)
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Maple Leafs vs Canadiens moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs have racked up 11 victories in the past 14 games against losing teams while winning seven of the past 10 outings inside the Atlantic Division.
While that’s all well and good, as mentioned, the Leafs have struggled with the Canadiens. It’s rather inexplicable, as Toronto has been an offensive juggernaut in recent seasons, while Montreal has really struggled since its run to the Stanley Cup Final in the crazy COVID season.
The home team has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, while Montreal has ended up with six victories in the past eight meetings. The underdog is also 6-2 across the past eight meetings, so the Canadiens are a value play catching a goal and a half on the puck line.
And while Montreal has failed to win in the past six tries inside the Atlantic Division, the Habs are 5-1 in the past six games following a home loss by three or more goals. The Canadiens also seem to rise to the occasion when facing better teams, going 8-3 in the past 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over .600.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Over/Under analysis
The Leafs rank No. 8 in the NHL with 3.4 goals per game, and it has hit at a 24.8% clip to also rank No. 8 on the power play.
While that’s great for the Over, the Leafs also limit the opposition to just 2.7 goals per game (GPG), good for No. 6 in the NHL. But the kill is just so-so, holding teams to a middle-of-the-pack 78.7%.
Montreal has struggled to light the lamp, going for 2.6 goals per game to rank No. 29 in the NHL. The power play has really had its issues, hitting at just 15.8%, the second-worst mark in the league.
The defense and goaltending has also been shaky, allowing 3.6 goals per game (27th), and the best thing about the team might be its penalty kill, holding teams to 74.8% at No. 23 in the league.
The Under is 8-3-2 in Montreal’s last 13 games when working on a day of rest while hitting at a 4-1 clip in teams with a winning percentage over .600.
While there are a handful of trends which might support the Over, it’s all about the Under when these two rivals clash.
The Under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings, including a push in the first meeting this season. The Under is also an overwhelming 6-1-2 in the past nine meetings in Montreal.
The Canadiens on the puck line and the Under is a strong play.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens betting trend to know
The Canadiens have won six of the past eight meetings against the Maple Leafs, while the home team has cashed in each of the previous five in the series. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Canadiens.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens game info
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QB |
| Date: | Saturday, January 21, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens key injuries
