Setbacks to conference rivals due to trades and injuries created optimism that the Tampa Bay Lightning could credibly make a Stanley Cup bid. And then the season started.
The Lightning have lost three of their first four games, and it's been a sluggish start for star forwards Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel.
However, my Lightning vs. Red Wings predictions and free NHL picks outline why both forwards are poised for a monster game on Friday, October 17.
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Lightning vs Red Wings prediction
Lightning vs Red Wings Best bet: Brandon Hagel 1+ points (-135)
Even with more public recognition of late, it still feels like Brandon Hagel's scoring prowess is slightly underappreciated. Over the past two seasons, Hagel has 165 points in 164 regular season games.
In the 2024-25 season, Hagel finished Top 5 in the NHL in even-strength points. Yet, despite being moved to the same line as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, Hagel has one point in four games.
Hagel’s lack of production is not because of lack of opportunity. He fumbled a chance to put the puck in the open net against Boston on Monday after a heady pass by Point. On Tuesday, he rang it off the post.
The Point-Kucherov duo are dynamite off the rush, and Hagel has been the recipient of plenty of rush chances.
Hagel leads the team in ixG (individual expected goals) at 5-on-5 and ranks second in 5-on-5 shots. His line with Point and Kucherov has been unlucky so far, as they haven't produced a goal in 33 minutes together at 5-on-5 despite registering a sizzling 62.8% expected goals percentage while generating more high-danger chances than their opponents.
The breakout is coming tonight.
Lightning vs Red Wings same-game parlay
I predict Kucherov and Point garnering plenty of points, with the power play being a source of production.
The Tampa Bay Lightning power play has evolved since the Steven Stamkos one-timer days. The current iteration uses Point and Oliver Bjorkstrand as the focal points of their set plays, stationed on the bumper and far-side flank.
Point has been a prolific scorer from the bumper, but now he interchanges with Bjorkstrand as Kucherov tries to determine whether to slide it into the bumper or through the seam to the flank.
The power play is a fount of offense for the Lightning, and theirs ranks third so far this season.
The Detroit Red Wings had one of the worst penalty kills in NHL history last year, and they are middle-of-the-pack early into 2025-26. Tampa Bay is going to feast on Detroit on the man advantage tonight.
Lightning vs Red Wings SGP
- Brandon Hagel 1+ points
- Nikita Kucherov 2+ points
- Brayden Point 1+ points
Lightning vs Red Wings odds
- Moneyline: Lightning -161 | Red Wings +130
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 | Red Wings +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Lightning vs Red Wings trend
The Lightning are 3-1 to the Over this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Red Wings.
How to watch Lightning vs Red Wings
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Friday, October 17, 2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | WXPX, FDSN-DET |
Lightning vs Red Wings latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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