We’ve got 11 games on tonight’s NHL slate, including an Eastern Conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.
Although Auston Matthews hasn’t scored in 10 games, I expect him to fire everything at the net to end the drought, making his shots prop the featured play in my Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions.
Find out more in our NHL picks for Saturday, March 7.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs prediction
Lightning vs Maple Leafs best bet: Auston Matthews Over 3.5 shots (-105)
Auston Matthews has been on a mission to end his scoring slump, firing everything at the net over the last few games.
I expect that to continue tonight, and with his line set at 3.5, the Over is the smart play, especially at -105.
The Toronto Maple Leafs captain has eclipsed that number in three straight games, averaging 5.3 shots per game, and he’s seen similar success over his last 10 matchups against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
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Lightning vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
I’ll stick with the shots theme in this SGP and add Mattias Maccelli to surpass 1.5. He’s getting time on the top line tonight and has recorded 2+ shots in six of his last eight games.
Meanwhile, the Leafs allow more shots per game than any other team this season and have given up 34.8 per game since returning from the Olympic break. Anthony Stolarz is averaging 33 saves over his last four starts.
Lightning vs Maple Leafs SGP
- Auston Matthews Over 3.5 shots
- Mattias Maccelli Over 1.5 shots
- Anthony Stolarz Over
Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds
- Moneyline: Lightning -210 | Maple Leafs +175
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+115) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120)
Lightning vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 6-2-2 in the last 10 contests between the two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.
How to watch Lightning vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, March 7, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet Ontario, The Spot |
Lightning vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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