What do Chelsea Gray and I have in common? We both scored the same number of points in the Las Vegas Aces’ recent outing.
The Aces point guard finished a quiet 0-for-5 from the floor in a one-sided defeat at Dallas, but Gray & Co. don’t have to wait long to shake off that embarrassing effort.
Las Vegas is a 7.5-point road favorite visiting the Phoenix Mercury tonight, and my Aces vs. Mercury predictions go after Gray’s scoring market, with my WNBA picks taking her to top her points prop on June 17.
Aces vs Mercury prediction
Aces vs Mercury best bet: Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 points (-120)
Before Monday’s goose egg, Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray was coming off her best offensive outings of the season.
She erupted for 23 and 29 points with her usage soaring to 23%, including 15 triples across those two outings.
Gray’s usage rose from 17% in May (10.6 ppg) to 19% in June while scoring at least 12 points in five straight games to open the month.
Gray will return to that involvement vs. the Phoenix Mercury, especially with the backcourt running thin and Jewel Loyd questionable.
Projections sit at 13.5 points from Gray, which should have this Over priced at -166.
COVERS INTEL: Projections see 3-pointers making up a good chunk of Gray’s production agianst Phoenix, with models at 2.6 makes (7.8 points). That forecast could be modest, considering the Mercury are the worst 3-point defense (37.8%) and allow 10.1 triples per contest.
Aces vs Mercury same-game parlay
After a horrible effort on Monday, Vegas coach Becky Hammon harped on her team’s dismal defense.
That’s the focus against the Mercury tonight. With Las Vegas making a focused effort on that end of the floor, an offensively limited Phoenix side (11th in offensive rating) has trouble staying within the sizeable spread.
Kahleah Copper snapped her shooting skid last time out, including making 6 of 14 attempts from beyond the arc. Even in the midst of that funk, Copper had knocked down two or more triples in four of her five games this month.
Vegas hasn’t been great protecting the perimeter, allowing the third-highest opponent success rate from deep, with foes averaging 9.5 treys — second most behind only Phoenix.
Copper could have the green light from deep, considering the bigger spread and game script saying the Mercury are battling from behind.
Aces vs Mercury SGP
- Aces -7.5
- Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 points
- Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 threes
- Best bet: 7-7, -0.96 units
- SGP: 3-11, +2.15 units
Aces vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Aces -7.5 | Mercury +7.5
- Moneyline: Aces -300 | Mercury +240
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 | Under 171.5
Aces vs Mercury trend
Phoenix is 0-2 ATS as a home underdog this season and 8-11 ATS when catching points at home since 2024. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, June 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Aces vs Mercury latest injuries
Aces: Jewel Loyd G (Questionable), Chennedy Carter G (Out), Dana Evans G (Out).
Mercury: Sami Whitcomb G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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