The Tampa Bay Lightning have one stop left in their four-game roadie out of the All-Star break, and it’s a visit to TD Garden to face the first-place Boston Bruins in an Atlantic Division clash.
Tampa snapped a two-game skid with a 4-2 road victory against the Blue Jackets on Saturday, and No. 1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy improved to 8-2 with a .912 SV% through his past 10 starts. The 2018-19 Vezina winner might just be back to his old self after missing a huge chunk of time to start the season.
Speaking of Vezina winners, last year’s recipient, Linus Ullmark, projects to start for the Spoked Bs. He’s been next to unbeatable on home ice with a 31-4-3 record, .933 SV%, and 1.93 GAA since the beginning of last year at the Garden.
The Bruins are a home favorite in the NHL odds, and our free NHL picks and NHL player props are the perfect complement to the Lightning vs. Bruins showdown.
Lightning vs Bruins odds
Lightning vs Bruins predictions
The Tampa Bay Lightning losing Mikhail Sergachev to a leg injury that will keep him out of the lineup for an extended period of time is a tough blow to an already thin defense corps.
He ranks second in minutes per game (22:33) for Tampa blueliners, which also includes averaging the second-most ice time on the power play and while shorthanded.
Tampa was able to roll off a 12-5 record with Sergachev out of the lineup ahead of the All-Star break with a lower-body injury, but at some point, his absence will catch up to the Bolts.
There are also notable home/road splits going against the Lightning on Tuesday. In addition to the highlighted dominance of Boston Bruins goalie Linus Ullmark on home ice, the Bs are also 17-6-3 at TD Garden and Tampa Bay sports a losing record (11-15-2) when it hits the highway.
Boston has also allowed the fourth-fewest goals per 60 minutes (1.84) with a fourth-ranked .936 team SV% at 5-on-5 on home ice. Meanwhile, Tampa ranks 27th in goals (2.17) and 23rd in expected goals (2.41) on the road at 5-on-5.
It’s been the Tampa Bay power play doing the heavy lifting with a fourth-ranked 26.8 PP% on the road. The Bruins sport a fifth-ranked 84.1 penalty-kill percentage to further mitigate the Tampa attack.
Still, my numbers aren’t aligning with the Bruins being a huge home favorite, and I have this game much closer to a coin flip. Additionally, pair Vasilevskiy being closer and closer to top form by the game with the Boston stout defense at home, and I like the Under 6 in this contest.
After all, Tampa has played to the Under in four of its past six road games, and the Under has hit in six of Boston’s past seven contests.
My best bet: Under 6 (+103 at Pinnacle)
Lightning vs Bruins same-game parlay
Under 6
James van Riemsdyk anytime goalscorer
In addition to my best bet, I’m adding a flier that Bruins winger James van Riemsdyk snaps this scoring skid and finds the back of the net Tuesday.
He’s been held to just two goals through his past 21 games despite seeing time with the No. 1 power-play unit and racking up 6.66 individual expected goals and 35 high-danger scoring chances. His 4.4 shooting percentage is also unsustainably low, especially considering how many of his shots are quality scoring chances.
It’s also worth noting that if you switch the goal with his Over 0.5 points, you get +475, which is still a long number given the statistical correction ahead of his shooting percentage and his net-front role on the No. 1 power-play unit.
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Lightning vs Bruins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There has been a small move to the Tampa Bay side of this moneyline as of Tuesday morning. The Lightning were as long as a +151 underdog early Tuesday through Pinnacle, but there has been enough Tampa support to move the Lightning to +134 by noon.
There wasn’t as significant of an adjustment at bet365, with Boston opening at -165 and moving to -160, and for comparison, the Bruins are -149 through Pinnacle as of Tuesday morning.
FanDuel is on an island with a 6.5-goal total in this game, and the Under is priced at -132 as of Tuesday morning. Otherwise, it’s a consensus 6 with the Over carrying the higher chalk.
It’s worth noting Pinnacle received slight Under action this morning, and bet365 also originally opened this game at 6.5 on Monday before moving it to 6 on Tuesday morning.
Lightning vs Bruins betting trend to know
Tampa has played to the Under in four of its past six road games, and the Under has hit in six of Boston’s past seven contests. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Bruins.
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Lightning vs Bruins game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 13, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally Sports Sun |
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