A massive Central Division clash is set to take place tonight when the Winnipeg Jets soar into Texas to take on the Dallas Stars.
Both teams are tied with 79 points for the division lead, and despite Winnipeg coming into this game on a four-game heater, It's Dallas who is labeled the favorite according to NHL odds.
The Stars have a Top-5 offense in the league, but a five-game stretch has seen their goal totals dry up. With Connor Hellebuyck expected to take the crease for the visitors, I don't expect Dallas to break out of this scoring slump tonight.
The Central Division lead is on the line, so find out how I'm tackling this matchup in my free NHL picks for the Jets vs. Stars on February 29.
Jets vs Stars odds
Jets vs Stars predictions
When you're in an offensive rut, the last person you wanna see between the opposition's pipes is the Vezina Trophy odds favorite. Unfortunately for the Dallas Stars, that's exactly what they can expect tonight with Connor Hellebuyck set to get the call after sitting against the Blues.
Hellebuyck has been a monster for the Winnipeg Jets all season, possessing the league's best GAA (2.21) and second-best SV% (.925). Hitting the road hasn't hampered the netminder either, as he's gone 14-5-1 with a 2.24 SV% and .924 GAA when playing outside of Winnipeg.
His play has landed the Jets the No. 1 defense in the league, and his teammates have also helped as they give up just 29.5 shots per game.
Another impressive stat is the Winnipeg netminder has given up two or fewer goals in 28 of his 42 appearances — an insane number and one I'll be targeting for him to do again today. He'll also be coming into this matchup on four days rest, which is something the Stars can't relate to.
Dallas just finished a 10-game stretch where it played on the road seven times, and this will be the team's third game in four days. And in the last five games of that stretch, it failed to register three or more goals in all of them.
Taking a closer look at those results, it's not like the Stars were getting unlucky, they just couldn't generate any offense. Dallas scored only seven goals in their last five (1.4 per game) and only had 9.53 expected goals for (1.9 per game). Not exactly an earth-shattering difference.
They also managed 10+ high-danger chances just once over those five games, with the worst outing coming against the Hurricanes, generating just one.
Simply put, this is a tired set of legs that now must go against a Winnipeg team clicking on all cylinders. With the Jets set to start the best goaltender in the NHL and Dallas' offense reeling, I'm not expecting many goals from the home side tonight.
My best bet: Stars team total Under 2.5 (+135 at SIA)
Jets vs Stars same-game parlay
Stars team total Under 2.5
Jets moneyline
The Jets are simply the hotter team entering this game. Their offense has been on fire, they haven't let up on defense, and they have the best goaltender in the game. Since the All-Star break, Winnipeg has gone 7-3-0 compared to Dallas' mediocre stretch of 5-4-3. The Stars' recent slide is why these teams are tied for the division lead in the first place.
Jake Oettinger is expected to get the nod and we very well could see a 2-1 or 3-2 finish, which is keeping me away from an alternate puck line. But when the dust settles, it'll be the Jets leaving Big D with two points.
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Jets vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Dallas opened up as a -135 home favorite at SIA with the Jets returning as +115 underdogs, and that number has yet to change as of writing. Winnipeg is 37-20 straight up this season, while the Stars are 35-26. A win for the Jets here could prove to be massive as they also have four games in hand on their division counterpart.
As for the total, this opened at SIA on a solid 6.0, with the Under juiced to -115. This should come as no surprise when you look at the potential goaltending matchup, and some other books have already moved to 5.5. Winnipeg has a 19-30-8 Over/Under record thus far while Dallas enters tonight at 36-25-0 O/U.
Jets vs Stars betting trend to know
The Jets have hit the first-period game total Under in 26 of their last 41 away games (+12.55 Units / 30% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Stars.
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Jets vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, February 29, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, TSN3 |
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