The Florida Panthers return home after a five-game road trip and that’s bad news for the visiting Vegas Golden Knights, as the Panthers are 21-3 SU at home this year and scoring a league-high 4.75 goals per game. Goals are to be expected and we could possibly see this NHL betting total hit 7.
Can Vegas slow down the league’s best offense on home ice and pick up its eighth road win in nine games? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Panthers.
Golden Knights vs Panthers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Panthers opened at -160 on the moneyline and have hit as high as -170. The total sits at 6.5 and is right on the edge of 7. The Knights closed at +180 on the ML in Carolina two nights ago. These two teams have not met since 2020.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Golden Knights vs Panthers predictions
Predictions made on 1/27/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Golden Knights vs Panthers game info
• Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
• Date: Thursday, January 27, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Florida, ROOT Sports RM
Golden Knights vs Panthers betting preview
Key injuries
Golden Knights: Adam Brooks F (Out), Reilly Smith F (Out), Alec Martinez D (Out), Max Pacioretty F (Out).
Panthers: Gustav Forsling D (Out), Patric Hornqvist F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Golden Knights vs Panthers head-to-head record (since 2017)
Golden Knights: 4-2 SU, 27 goals for.
Panthers: 2-4 SU, 19 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Panthers’ last six vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Panthers.
Golden Knights vs Panthers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Panthers will play at home for the first time since January 15 tonight, as they recently ended a five-game road trip that saw them go 3-2 SU. The Panthers aren’t the best traveling team in the league (8-11 SU), but you don’t want to mess with these felines at home.
On the season, Andrew Brunette’s club is an incredible 21-3 SU at home, which is the second-best home mark in hockey behind the Avalanche, who just won their 17th straight home game last night. No team is scoring more goals on home ice than Florida, at 4.75 per game, and its scoring margin is over +2.00 goals per game. Before they hit the road, the Panthers ripped off three straight wins at home and outscored their opponents 21-5. This is with a power play that sits in the middle of the league. At even strength, nobody is better than Florida.
Trying to stop this juggernaut will be the Vegas Golden Knights, who are the third-best road team in hockey at 12-6 SU. They are coming off a 4-3 OT loss to the Hurricanes Tuesday but were outplayed and gave up 4.14 xgoals. They blanked the struggling Capitals on Monday but tonight’s projected starter, Robin Lehner, went into that shutout victory having posted a save percentage above .905 just once in his previous eight starts. Lehner hasn’t been consistent all season and owns a 2.85 GAA heading into tonight. He’s allowed three or more goals in 17 of his 30 starts this season.
The Panthers’ offensive strengths come from their 5-on-5 play. They sit first in goals for, goal differential, xgoals for, goal%, Corsi%, Fenwick%... the list is extensive. So what are the chances the Knights can slow this team down while missing Max Pacioretty, Alec Martinez, and Reilly Smith?
The Knights sit outside the Top 10 in xgoal% and struggle to minimize quality chances, as they have the sixth-highest expected goal against, which ranks one spot above the Canadiens. As we saw in the Canes game, Vegas allows plenty of high-danger chances and has the most high-danger shots given up in the league.
Giving up quality chances to the Panthers at home is a death sentence. Florida has scored at least five goals in six straight home games and also showed in its 5-3 win in Winnipeg on Tuesday that this team may be the deepest top-12 in hockey. With the injuries to the Knights, we’re not so sure Vegas can hang with this potent offense.
Beating Sergei Bobrovsky at home is also not something we want to bet against, as the Florida netminder is 15-1 SU on home ice this season. In its last 18 home games, Florida has won in regulation in all but five of these games, including seven straight matches.
Prediction: Panthers 3-way ML (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Goals should be expected tonight and getting this Over at 6.5 should be a priority for bettors. We’re not saying we disagree with Over 7, but 6.5 is a much better number as it gives a winner on a 3-3 game and an empty-netter is in play with a 4-2 score.
These two rank first and second in high-danger shots allowed and combined, these two teams are 52-32-2 to the Over. Each club has hit a league-high 26 Overs on the season and it isn’t surprising looking at each team's goals per game.
The Panthers are averaging 7.45 total goals per game at home, which is also the highest mark in hockey. Bobrovsky has been elite at picking up wins on home ice but his 2.36 GAA isn’t a Top-10 home GAA in hockey.
The Vegas offense should help out this total, as well. The Knights have scored the third-most even-strength goals this season and with an xgoal mark that ranks fifth, the numbers aren’t lying. If Vegas gets two goals, this Over is still in great shape.
The Over is 11-1 in Florida’s last 12 home games, as this team is a different beast at FLA Live Arena. With both teams able to score at 5-on-5, this Over isn’t reliant on special team goals. This number should hit 7, as Florida’s last home game versus Columbus closed at 7.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-120)
Best bet
The Panthers are 18-6 to the Over at home this season, which is the best rate in hockey, while Vegas is 12-6 to the Over on the road. These are two elite goal-scoring teams who average at least 3.40 goals per game with plenty of those coming at even strength.
Goaltending hasn’t been elite for either team and getting this number at 6.5 is a big advantage for the Over. We’re expecting an extensive scoresheet Thursday night as this is our favorite Over on the board.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120)
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