The Edmonton Oilers and captain Connor McDavid will hit the ice at the American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Stars in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final on Wednesday, May 21.
Edmonton sent Dallas packing last spring, and my top NHL picks for the Connor McDavid odds are looking for No. 97 to find the back of the net in the series opener tonight.
Connor McDavid player prop picks
- Best bet
Connor McDavid anytime goalscorer
(+155) - SGP pick
Connor McDavid anytime goalscorer
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 points
Under 6.5
(+750)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Connor McDavid best bet
Anytime goalscorer (+155 at Bet99)
Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid continues to score at a historic postseason pace with 17 points – three goals – through 11 games through the first two rounds of the dance. His 1.58 points per playoff game ranks second in NHL history behind just Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemiuex.
I’m expecting No. 97 to keep the good times rolling and cash in with a goal tonight.
McDavid has only scored a single five-on-five tally all postseason, with an empty-net goal and goal scored while Edmonton had their goaltender pulled to round out his three goals.
He’s generated an impressive 4.05 expected goals and recorded 17 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, while also tilting the ice in his favor with a dominant 62.3 Corsi For percentage and 65.8 expected goals percentage.
His overall 7.0 shooting percentage this postseason is also well below his 13.3% mark during the regular season, and McDavid also scored eight goals across 25 playoff games with a 10.5 SH% last spring.
Oilers vs. Stars same-game parlay
Connor McDavid anytime goalscorer
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 points
Under 6.5
The Dallas Stars has been stingy on home ice with just 2.29 goals against per game and a 90.0 penalty-kill percentage through seven postseason contests, and No. 1 goalie Jake Oettinger has posted a high-end .941 save percentage and 1.59 GAA during his five-game winning streak at American Airlines.
Additionally, Edmonton played to the Under in 33 of their last 55 away games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI), and there were six goals or fewer in five of six Round 2 games between the Stars and Jets.
Turning to Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he’s set to open Game 1 skating with McDavid in all situations, which is a huge boost for Nugent-Hopkins’ offensive upside.
After all, the duo has been on the ice for 7.96 goals per 60 minutes during the playoffs, and Nugent-Hopkins has only been on for 1.94 per 60 when he hasn’t jumped the boards with McDavid.
Finally, because the Under 6.5 goals doesn’t correlate with the other two legs of this same-game parlay, we’re landing a nice multiplier for the odds.
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