Jake Sanderson has 10 points over nine games since returning to the Ottawa Senators lineup.
With Ottawa 53% favorites in a game with a 6.5 total, my Capitals vs. Senators prediction sees Sanderson finding the scoresheet once again.
Read on for full analysis and NHL picks for Tuesday, Nov. 10.
Capitals vs Senators prediction: Under 6.5
I see value on the Under to 57%.
The Ottawa Senators are 10th in goals against despite playing half their games without Linus Ullmark, who ranks third in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 (GSAx).
A big factor is the support their goaltenders get defensively. The Senators are a slow-paced, structured team and they really lean into that when well rested.
Ottawa has played three games following two days off this season. Those contests have featured an average of 4.6 goals per game, and all three were played sans Ullmark.
Logan Thompson is consistently among the league leaders in GSAx, and should slow an offense sitting 25th in shots and 31st on the power play.
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TOP PICK
Capitals vs Senators player prop: Jake Sanderson Over 0.5 points
Jake Sanderson is playable for a point to 56%.
The Senators don't have a lot of firepower up front, especially with the long-term injury to William Eklund.
They need their top defensemen to be active and help create extra layers of offense, and Sanderson has done just that.
He has 10 points through nine games he has started and finished this year, including points in five of six games Ottawa has been favored.
Most of Sanderson's production has come at 5-on-5, and the Washington Capitals are 27th in goals against per 60 during that game state.
COVERS INTEL: The Capitals are allowing 3.5 expected goals per 60 minutes, the fifth most in the NHL.Capitals vs Senators combo
I expect a competitive, low-scoring affair. That should result in ceiling usage for top players like Sanderson and Dylan Cozens.
Sanderson has recorded 10 points over nine games since returning from injury and leads the team in assists during that span.
Cozens is averaging well over nine shots on goal per 60 minutes with Tim Stutzle as his center at 5-on-5. He also lives around the net on the power play, leading to plenty of good shooting opportunities.
Capitals vs Senators combo
- Under 6.5
- Jake Sanderson Over 0.5 points
- Dylan Cozens Over 2.5 shots
Capitals vs Senators goal scorer: Dylan Cozens
Playable to 30%.
Cozens has generated shots on goal at a higher clip when playing with Stutzle on his line than any other regular Senators forward.
That makes him more of a scoring threat at 5-on-5, and he is only one shot on goal behind the team lead on the man advantage.
Thompson hasn't quite been himself this season, and Cozens' shot volume from close proximity to the net makes him a prime candidate to capitalize.
- Top picks: 22-26, -8.51 units
- Combos: 9-38, -6.24 units
Capitals vs Senators odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Capitals 48% | Senators 53%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (48%) | Under 6.5 (53%)
- Spread: Capitals +1.5 (70%) | Senators -1.5 (31%)
Check the latest NHL odds before tonight’s Capitals vs. Senators matchup.
Capitals vs Senators trend
Ottawa has cashed the Under in 16 of its last 25 games for +7.10 units and a 27% ROI. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Capitals vs Senators
| Location | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, Ontario |
| Date | Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | MNMT, TSN5 |
Capitals vs Senators latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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