A pair of the hottest teams in the NHL meet at the Bell Centre on Tuesday, March 18, with the Montreal Canadiens hosting the Ottawa Senators.
Both clubs are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, and my top Senators vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks are calling for Montreal starter Sam Montembeault to stand tall against a bevy of shots tonight.
Canadiens vs Senators prediction
My Canadiens pick: Sam Montembeault Over 25.5 saves (-105 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
The Montreal Canadiens have skyrocketed up the standings with a 7-1-2 record out of the 4 Nations Face-Off, and No. 1 goalie Sam Montembeault has played a starring role in the success.
Montembeault has won six of seven starts with a tidy .928 save percentage and 1.96 GAA, which includes a perfect 4-0 run on home ice.
There’s definitely smoke and mirrors in the underlying metrics, though.
The Habs have surrendered the most shot attempts per 60 minutes (68.73) at 5-on-5 to fuel a 31st-ranked 43.2 Corsi For percentage, and their third-ranked 103.5 PDO during the stretch is unsustainably high.
Montreal welcomes the equally rolling Ottawa Senators to the Bell Centre tonight, and they have registered the sixth-most shots per game (29.6) while sporting a middling 50.3 CF% at 5-on-5 for the campaign.
Additionally, like the Habs, the Sens have a splash of statistical correction ahead. Ottawa has dipped to 28.7 shots per game and 48.6 CF% at 5-on-5 during its 7-2-1 run out of the break, and Montreal is the perfect opponent for the Senators to cash in against.
It all adds up to a busy night for Montembeault, and while maintaining his dominant .928 SV% long-term is asking too much, I’m not expecting the floodgates to open tonight.
Canadiens vs Senators same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6
Sam Montembeault Over 25.5 saves
Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 shots
Switching to the opposite crease, Sens starter Linus Ullmark has also been upping his game with an active 6-0-1 record, .913 SV%, and 2.69 GAA. I’m expecting him to have a say tonight, too.
Plus, Ottawa has scored the ninth-fewest goals per road game (2.57), which is largely fuelled by scoring the fifth-fewest goals per 60 at 5-on-5 (1.99). It’s helped the Sens play to the Under in 25 of their last 45 road games (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI).
This is a perfect matchup for Sens captain Brady Tkachuk to pad the shots column. He’s recorded just three shots on five attempts across his past two games, and putting pucks on the net is priority No. 1 for Tkachuk tonight.
Of course, the go-to winger sports a solid 53.0 CF% at 5-on-5 while also ranking in the 99th percentile in shots on goal among forwards for the campaign.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Canadiens vs Senators odds
Canadiens vs Senators live odds
Canadiens vs Senators opening odds
- Puck line: Montreal +1.5 (-245) | Ottawa -1.5 (+206)
- Moneyline: Montreal +110 | Ottawa -124
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (+100)
Canadiens vs Senators trend
The Ottawa Senators have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 away games (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Senators.
How to watch Canadiens vs Senators
| Location | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-18-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN2 |
Canadiens vs Senators latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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