It's Wednesday, and that means it's time for Covers' Puck Props show. Through one week, it's netted +17.23 units, and I'm asking it to get me back on a hockey heater while making my favorite NHL predictions for Wednesday, Oct. 7.
Artturi Lehkonen's point prop is about as strong as an even-money prop can be right now, Ben Kindel's ice time and PP1 role aren't priced into his point offering, and there's still a little more time to find value on Edmonton's offense.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points |
50% |
 Ben Kindel Over 0.5 points |
42% |
 Vasily Podkolzin Over 0.5 assists |
41% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points
Artturi Lehkonen just played 19:30 in his last game and has recorded points in both contests to start the season, and the Colorado offense has put up 14 goals in two games. The winger is riding shotgun on the top line and playing a PP2 role. This price should be closer to 60% than 50%.
The Avs get to bury some goals against Stuart Skinner, and I’m not reading too much into the Winnipeg Jets’ back-to-back wins. Lehkonen’s two-point prop is also in play at 17% after he hit it in both games to open the season.
The Avs are playing some of the best offensive hockey in October, while the Jets have yet to face a serious team. They've posted a 49% xGoal share despite taking five of six possible points through three games.
- Matchup: Avalanche vs. Jets
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Canada Life Center, Winnipeg, Manitoba
- TV: Prime
Pick #2: Ben Kindel Over 0.5 points
Ben Kindel missed the first game of the season. But he played almost 19 minutes in his last contest, finishing with a goal and an assist. Being featured on the third line might hurt some players, but he gets to play alongside Bryan Rust today, and the Penguins love rolling their middle-six lines.
Kindel is also playing on the top power-play unit, and he's already registered a power-play goal this season.
The Capitals are still working with a lot of new pieces on the roster, which could be why the club currently ranks 31st of 32 teams in expected goals against per 60, per MoneyPuck. This should be priced at 46% and maybe even shorter if Kindel continues getting 18-plus minutes per game and PP1 opportunities.
- Matchup: Penguins vs. Capitals
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
- TV: TNT
Pick #3: Vasily Podkolzin Over 0.5 assists
The Oilers are still scoring goals without Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and the reason for that has been the play of Vasily Podkolzin.
The winger is on the top line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and he's produced five points in three games, including two multi-point efforts. He's tallied a helper in consecutive outings and has also chipped in three power-play points.
The Anaheim Ducks rank 31st in shot-attempt percentage after playing some good teams, and they've posted the second-highest PDO, which is a good indicator of luck. The Oilers can outscore their defensive issues, while Anaheim has been fortunate to start 2-0 straight up despite its underlying metrics.
It's tough to find value in Edmonton's offense, but Podkolzin is still offering it tonight.
- Matchup: Oilers vs. Ducks
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
- TV: Sportsnet West
- Top picks: 8-8, -0.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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