Auston Matthews isn't asking out of Toronto, but for the first time in his career, he's not fully buying into the future either.
The Toronto Maple Leafs captain reportedly wants to see meaningful roster upgrades before committing to the team long-term, putting pressure squarely on new GM John Chayka to build a true Stanley Cup contender.
While Matthews still has two years left on his current deal, including a full no-movement clause, and coming off knee surgery, Kalshi markets are already pricing out where he could land if things go BOOM in Toronto:
Feels like the Leafs have basically lit several sticks of dynamite in the franchise without thinking about what happens when the fuse runs out. https://t.co/XSnPZXSuny
— Bruce Arthur (@bruce_arthur) May 5, 2026
Auston Matthews next team odds
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
This isn’t a traditional next-team market — it’s a leverage play.
“Stays with Toronto or retires” at 64% sets the baseline, but beyond that, there’s no real favorite — just a cluster of teams with no separation.
Matthews isn’t being shopped. He’s evaluating the Leafs and forcing management to prove they can win. And with a full no-movement clause, he controls what happens next.
These probabilities don’t reflect who’s “leading” — they reflect which teams could appeal to him if he decides Toronto isn’t enough.
Auston Matthews next team favorites
Stay with Toronto
For all the uncertainty, the Toronto Maple Leafs still offer Auston Matthews something no other team can: legacy.
He’s already the franchise’s all-time leading goal scorer with 428 goals in 689 games, a three-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner, and the face of hockey’s most scrutinized market. Walking away doesn’t just mean changing teams; it means resetting everything he’s built over nearly a decade.
There’s also the competitive angle. Even in a “down” year where he scored 27 goals in 60 games and missed time with injury, Matthews remains one of the league’s elite goal scorers. The Leafs don’t need a rebuild; they need a retool. And if management finally delivers meaningful upgrades, Toronto still offers the most direct path to contending without starting over.
Add in the captaincy and the potential with the Leafs holding the top pick of the draft, and there’s a strong case that staying isn’t settling, it’s doubling down.
San Jose Sharks
The San Jose Sharks originally showed up at 51%, but as the NHL Draft approaches, that likelihood decreases. The only real avenue here would be for the Maple Leafs to trade for the second pick, but it's unlikely the Sharks would want to part ways with such a valuable asset.
There's a reason this number has fallen to 18% at Kalshi.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Philadelphia Flyers are one of the more interesting names, but the fit isn’t perfect.
They’re into the second round and clearly improving, but still not a true contender. They have the assets to make a deal, with picks and young pieces that could interest Toronto.
The bigger issue is style and situation. The Flyers play a physical, grind-it-out game that doesn’t naturally match an elite goal scorer like Matthews. And from Toronto’s side, moving him within the Eastern Conference to a rising playoff team is far from ideal.
Auston Matthews next team prediction
Captaining the Toronto Maple Leafs is one of the most demanding roles in hockey, and Auston Matthews has carried both the spotlight and the criticism for nearly a decade.
But this situation feels less like an exit and more like leverage.
Matthews holds all the control with a full no-movement clause, and this offseason is effectively a test for management. If the Leafs make meaningful upgrades, there’s no cleaner path to contention than staying put.
If they don’t, that’s when this conversation becomes real.
Trading a franchise player of this caliber is a last resort, not a starting point. And right now, nothing suggests Toronto is there yet.
Top pick: Auston Matthews stays in Toronto (69%, -223)
Auston Matthews career snapshot
Auston Matthews has spent his entire career with the Toronto Maple Leafs after being selected No. 1 overall in the 2016 NHL Draft.
He made an immediate impact, scoring four goals in his NHL debut, and quickly established himself as one of the league’s elite goal scorers.
Now 28, Matthews is a three-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner and Toronto’s all-time leading goal scorer with 428 goals in 689 games. He also ranks among the franchise leaders in total points, with 780.
Even in a down year, Matthews remains one of the NHL’s most dangerous offensive players, finishing last season with 27 goals and 53 points in 60 games before a knee injury cut his season short.
The one gap on his resume is playoff success. Matthews has 26 goals and 59 points in 68 postseason games, with the Maple Leafs winning just two playoff rounds during his tenure.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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