Week 8 NFL Parlay Picks: Dolphins, Chiefs Cover Big Numbers

Underdogs went a solid 8-5 ATS in the NFL odds last week, highlighted by the Patriots' shocking win over the Bills and the Vikings' upset victory over the 49ers. That said, I like the Dolphins as heavy favorites over New England in the Week 8 odds, so I'm throwing them into a three-leg parlay with two additional favorites.

I'll also discuss my best same-game parlay for Week 8 featuring the Jaguars as I make my free NFL parlay picks.

Week 8 NFL parlay picks

• Dolphins -9.5 + Chiefs -7 + Seahawks ML = +455
• Jaguars ML + Etienne anytime TD + Harris u49.5 rush yds = +290

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 8 parlay pick

Dolphins -9.5

Chiefs -7

Seahawks moneyline

+455 at DraftKings

A pattern has developed for the Dolphins — they can't tangle with the top dogs, but they can mop the floor with everyone else.

Miami has covered in all five of its victories this year, including their 24-17 triumph at New England in Week 2. Raheem Mostert accounted for two scores that day while Tyreek Hill added one of his own. 

When both of those players appeared on the injury report on Wednesday, bettors were quick to pounce on the Patriots at +12, and the line moved as low as +9 on Thursday afternoon. But both Mostert and Hill practiced on Thursday, so it should be all systems go for them.

Even if one or both of them miss this game, Jaylen Waddle and either Jeff Wilson Jr. or Salvon Ahmed can compensate. Waddle would be a No. 1 option on many teams, while the Pats allowed 145 yards on the ground to Miami in their last meeting.

Look for the Fins to make it seven straight covers vs. Bill Belichick's men, whose victory over Buffalo last week likely says more about the state of the Bills defense than anything else.

Speaking of divisional dominance, the Chiefs go for their second victory over the Broncos this month and 17th straight, and I think they'll get it rather easily. 

K.C. prevailed just 19-8 when they hosted Denver in Week 6, but they outgained Russell Wilson & Co. 389-197 and went only 1-for-5 in terms of red zone touchdown conversions. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes should execute better inside the 20-yard line this time around considering the Chiefs' red zone offense owns a 57.8% conversion rate on the year.

Finally, I'll throw in the Seahawks on the moneyline rather than get risky at -3.5, as the payout is still generous enough.

Seattle continues to be one of the league's most underrated teams, as they're a possession away from having a five-game win streak under their belt. Their point differential is +43 since Week 2. I don't have faith in the Browns to keep things going without true star power on offense.

Best Week 8 SGP

Jaguars moneyline

Travis Etienne Anytime TD

Najee Harris Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

+290 at BetMGM

The Jaguars have left a discouraging 1-2 start behind them, ripping off four straight victories and playing to a +45 point differential. Beating the Bills as underdogs back when that foe's defense was healthier was no small feat, and neither was going into inhospitable New Orleans on a short week and handling business vs. the Saints. It's part of the reason why I have no qualms about backing Jacksonville as it takes on the Steelers in Pittsburgh this Sunday.

The Jags figure to win this game on the ground, but it's clear that they have the quarterback advantage with Trevor Lawrence facing off against Kenny Pickett.

Lawrence has gone below 210 passing yards in three of his last four games, but it's hard to knock a 69.8% completion rate and 5-1 touchdown-interception ratio in that span. After being a game-time decision last Thursday, having some extra time off likely helped him in the fitness department.

Pickett hasn't taken a major step forward in Year 2, as his completion percentage has fallen from 63% to 60.9% while his yards per attempt (6.2 in 2022 to 6.8 in 2023) and touchdown-interception ratio (7-9 in 2022 to 5-4 in 2023) have shown only marginal improvement.

Travis Etienne should be able to run effectively vs. the Steelers, as Pittsburgh ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed per game. He's found the end zone at least twice in three straight games, so I'll back him with confidence to get at least one score here.

I envision a negative game script for the Steelers, so I'll fade Najee Harris in the rushing yards department. Harris is averaging exactly 50 rushing yards per game in 2023, and while he's exceeded that number in three of his last four games, he also saw some softer competition in that span.

When he battled a pair of Top 10 run-stopping units to start the year in the 49ers and Browns, he was limited to a total of 74 yards on 16 carries. The Jaguars' stoppers are resolute, ranking fourth in rushing yards allowed per contest.

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