After a 2–1 result last week, we’re back for another helping of NFL trends!
Jacksonville doesn’t play with its food, Tennessee keeps getting smacked around by its divisional rivals, and Seattle has made a habit of handling business as a favorite.
Let’s dig into the three Week 5 NFL trends that I’ll be backing.
Best NFL trends for Week 5
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| Trend | Pick |
|---|---|
 PHI vs  JAX• JAX is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3+ points |
|
 HOU vs  TEN• TEN is 3-15 ATS in divisional games |
|
 SF vs  SEA• SEA is 14-5-2 ATS as a favorite |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Eagles vs Jaguars trends
Trend: Jacksonville is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3+ points since the start of last season
- Why it matters for Week 5: The Jags don't play down to the competition and should be able to take advantage of a broken Eagles team in London.
Week 5 pick: Jaguars -7.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars get a favorable matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles team that appears to be on the verge of cracking, if it hasn't already. Don’t expect any sympathy from Jacksonville, which has made a habit of laying the smackdown on inferior teams.
They didn’t make their backers sweat in these games as a favorite of three or more, as Jacksonville outscored those seven opponents 232-73, covering by an average of 14.9 points, with only one of the opponents staying within 15 points.
Now comes an injury-ravaged Philly team that’s 0–6 ATS in its last six games. Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are dealing with hamstring injuries, while the offense ranks 26th in scoring. The offensive line being in shambles only adds to their list of major problems.
An overseas trip hardly looks like a spot to get back on track, especially against an opponent with years of London experience. Good luck finding your offensive identity against a Jags defense allowing just 13.3 points per game.
Texans vs Titans trends
Trend: The Titans are 3-15 ATS in divisional games since the start of 2023
- Why it matters for Week 5: The Texans' defense finally gets a favorable matchup against an awful offense after a tough schedule to start the season.
Week 5 pick: Texans -7.5
A matchup against the Tennessee Titans seems like the perfect cure for a team needing a get-right game, especially when that team is a divisional opponent.
The Titans have covered just three of 18 divisional games since 2023. That’s impressively incompetent.
Backing the Houston Texans as a 7.5-point road favorite isn’t an easy sell after its 0–4 SU and ATS start, but Tennessee’s track record shouldn’t be ignored.
A lot has been made of the Texans’ supposed defensive fall-off, but consider the competition: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Dallas. This week brings a matchup with a Titans offense averaging just 13.8 points per game, led by QB Cam Ward, who's inching closer to bust territory with each passing game.
Houston also has some rare offensive momentum after dropping 30 points on Dallas, its second 30-point game this season. Look for the defense to get back on track against an offense it held to 13 total points in two meetings last season.
49ers vs Seahawks trends
Trend: The Seahawks are 14-5-2 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season
- Why it matters for Week 5: Seattle wins when it’s supposed to and gets a short spread against a 49ers team showing some red flags.
Week 5 pick: Seahawks -2.5
Let’s go back to the well on this one. The Seattle Seahawks have repeatedly handled business when expected to win, going 14-5-2 ATS and 19-2 SU as a favorite since the start of last season, including the playoffs.
More importantly for this matchup, the Seahawks are 6–1 ATS and 7–0 SU as favorites against NFC West opponents. They also obliterated the San Francisco 49ers in the final two meetings last season, allowing nine combined points in 13–3 and 41–6 victories.
And who could’ve predicted this? The 49ers once again have health concerns.
Nick Bosa isn’t expected back this week, Kyle Juszczyk will miss a few weeks with a knee injury, and safety Marques Sigle is sidelined by a high-ankle sprain. With Upton Stout also listed as day-to-day, the defensive depth is being tested.
At Seattle -2.5, I’m backing the Seahawks to win by at least a field goal.
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Other notable NFL trends for Week 5
- 🟢Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite
Back Browns +2.5
- 🟢Commanders are 7-1 O/U in their last eight games
Back Over 43.5 vs. Giants
- 🔴The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after an outright loss
Avoid Bills +2.5 vs. Rams
- 🔴The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games
Avoid Lions +5.5 vs. Cardinals
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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