The Chicago Bears opened as a 2.5-point favorite for their Week 5 game at the Green Bay Packers, the first time in 20 years they’ve been favored at Lambeau Field.
My early Bears vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks expect the Bears to cover in a high-scoring game on Sunday, Oct. 11.
Bears vs Packers predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Bears vs Packers spread pick: Bears -2.5
Hopefully the probability will come down. I wouldn’t go higher than 55%.
Since Caleb Williams was injured, the Chicago Bears have won back-to-back games with two different undrafted quarterbacks replacing him. Case Keenum beat the Eagles, and on Sunday, Tyson Bagent beat the Jets. Coach Ben Johnson has already announced that Bagent will start against the Green Bay Packers this week.
The offense under Bagent showed balance, with Rome Odunze getting twice as many catches and yards as in previous weeks. Tight end Colston Loveland topped his three-week season totals for catches and yards in the Jets game.
While the Williams injury has kept the Bears offense from being as explosive as expected heading into the season, the Chicago defense has stepped up, allowing 12 points or fewer in each of the last three games.
The Packers successfully ran the ball against the winless Bucs, but Chris Brooks suffered an ankle injury and finished with five carries, and backup Kaleb Johnson lost a fumble in relief.
If the Bears can shut down the ground game, Green Bay will go back to being the one-dimensional offense that struggled against the Falcons and Jets.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Early Bears vs Packers total pick: Over 45.5
The Bears offense should return to the explosive production it had with Williams, as Bagent will make use of the numerous weapons available to him.
Bagent is also supported by a ground game that’s just as deep and effective. The Bears had 232 rushing yards on Sunday, the fourth time they’ve topped 230 since the start of last season — no other NFL team has done it more than twice.
The Packers' run stop unit has been solid this season, but it took a big hit when linebacker Edgerrin Cooper suffered a season-ending Achilles tear on Sunday. He’s also been Green Bay’s best pass rusher with Micah Parsons out. So the Bears' passing game will also benefit from the injury.
Jordan Love has had a low completion percentage this season, as he’s been taking chances deep. If Brooks can play, and the Packers can continue to threaten with the run, it should help Love produce more effectively.
Bears vs Packers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Bears vs Packers spread: Packers +2.5
- Bears vs Packers moneyline: Bears 54%, Packers 46%
- Bears vs Packers Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Bears vs Packers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Green Bay, Wis.
- Venue: Lambeau Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
