A 3-0 sweep in Week 2 for this column deserves a quick victory lap, but let’s keep this thing rolling.
My Week 3 NFL Trends feature a familiar Cleveland tradition, a Seattle team that handles its business against inferior opponents, and a Tampa Bay squad that somehow made Deshaun Watson look respectable — as a football player, to be clear.
Here are the top three trends driving my NFL picks this week.
Best NFL trends for Week 3
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| Trend | Pick |
|---|---|
 CAR vs  CLE• CLE is 6-17-2 ATS after a win |
|
 SEA vs  WAS• SEA is 14-4-1 ATS as a favorite |
|
 MIN vs  TB• TB is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Panthers vs Browns trends
Trend: Cleveland is 6-17-2 ATS after an outright win since 2022
Why it matters for Week 3:
- The Browns are coming off a Week 2 win and are catching a spread inside three points against the surging Panthers
Week 3 pick: Panthers -2.5
Easy, Cleveland Browns fans. One win doesn’t mean you can put the paper bags away.
Cleveland is an even uglier 2-11-1 ATS as an underdog after an outright win since 2022, and Deshaun Watson starting the home opener has a potential riot written all over it.
The Browns are averaging just 16.5 points and 65.5 rushing yards while converting on a pathetic 28.6% of third downs. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers offense has been a buzzsaw, producing 35.5 points through two games.
Cleveland lacks the ground game to control the clock and keep that offense off the field. Asking Watson to win a shootout? That’s not happening.
Seahawks vs Commanders trends
Trend: Seattle is 14-4-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season
Why it matters for Week 3:
- Seattle doesn’t play down to its competition, and the vulnerable Commanders look like their next victim
Week 3 pick: Seahawks -7.5
The Seattle Seahawks are also 9-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game. They’ve allowed just 17 total points through two games and now get a matchup with backup Marcus Mariota, who went 2-6 as the Washington Commanders' starter last season.
Meanwhile, Drew Lock has looked like a seasoned starter, completing 72.9% of his passes for 422 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. If Sam Darnold still isn't ready to return, I remain confident in this offense with Lock under center.
The defensive contrast is extreme: Seattle ranks first in yards per play allowed, while Washington is 28th. The Commanders are also letting opponents convert 52% of third downs, keeping an already awful defense on the field even longer.
Dan Quinn’s days could be numbered if his defense keeps getting eviscerated. Seattle is a miserable opponent to face while trying to dig out of an early-season hole.
Vikings vs Buccaneers trends
Trend: Tampa Bay is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games
Why it matters for Week 3:
- Tampa Bay’s decline looks real, and the gritty Vikings could make an already ugly start even worse
Week 3 pick: Vikings -1.5
Speaking of coaches running out of excuses, Todd Bowles might want to keep his resume handy.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have limped through an extremely sloppy start with five turnovers, then blew a 10-point second-half lead as a big home favorite against Cleveland. Losing to the Browns should require a written apology to season-ticket holders.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings have shown they can win in completely different ways, beating Green Bay 39-22 before grinding out a 9-3 victory over Chicago. The Vikings can survive a rock fight, while Kyler Murray’s return could give their offense a much-needed lift.
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Other notable NFL trends for Week 3
- 🟢The Cowboys' last eight games are 8-0 to the Over
Ravens vs Cowboys Over 52.5
- 🟢The 49ers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite
49ers -8.5
- 🔴The Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games
Avoid Saints -3.5
- 🔴The Patriots are 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games
Avoid Patriots +2.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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