With the increased popularity of betting touchdown props, it’s a little harder these days for bettors to find value in the market. However, because of price discrepancies across books, having multiple outs is the best way to be profitable with Week 3 NFL props.
Each week I’ll find my three best touchdown props for the Sunday slate. They might not be high-win probable plays, but if they aren’t, they’ll certainly be +EV. I’m up 8.7 units over two weeks and swept the NFL odds board last week.
When it comes to Week 3 odds, I’m looking at a trio of backs that all have great opportunities on Sunday for different reasons.
Here are my NFL picks for Week 3's anytime touchdown market.
Week 3 touchdown props
- Murray anytime TD
- Dowdle anytime TD
- Moss anytime TD
Picks made on September 22 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 3 TD props
Prop bet #1: Goal-line ready
Latavius Murray has been the goal-line running back for the Buffalo Bills this season and finished last week with five red-zone looks (four carries and a target) with three of those coming inside the five-yard line. He’s currently as long as +320 to score and looks like a solid play when he faces the Washington Commanders in Week 3.
Starter James Cook has seen zero carries inside the five-yard line as the Bills prefer to use him between the 20s. Cook was also absent from practice on Thursday as he is expecting a child. Meanwhile, Josh Allen has also been running less, sporting just nine carries over two games and just one carry near the goal line. Those tough yards are all Murray's.
Murray will see the second-most carries behind Cook and has been targeted on 25% of his routes run (three catches on four targets). The veteran back remains a tough tackle in close.
.@LataviusM's first touchdown as a Buffalo Bill!
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 17, 2023
????: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/bVRqJkyF9T
While the Commanders boast some talent on their defensive line, the only non-QB rush that they've faced from inside the 10 has gone for a score.
Buffalo can move the ball and it will be Murray time near the goal line. There is also some wind and possible rain projected, which could ultimately make passing in the red zone difficult.
Tight end Dawson Knox (eight RZ targets through two games) is also questionable for Sunday. It’s a full unit at +320.
Latavius Murray prop: Anytime touchdown (+320 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Uncle Rico
There are a lot of big spreads this week and those potential one-sided games could easily give way to some backup running back TD opportunities. One of those could be Dallas Cowboys’ RB Rico Dowdle to score at +500.
Through two weeks of beatdowns, the Cowboys’ backup RB has four red-zone carries, including two from inside the five-yard line against the Jets that were stuffed. Luckily for "Uncle Rico", the ‘Boys face the Cardinals in Week 3 and Arizona has given up 51 points and three rushing TDs on the season.
Arizona has two starters on defense listed as questionable (DT Leki Fotu and LB Josh Woods) as well as four starters doubtful or on IR (S Budda Baker, DE LJ Collier, OLB Myjai Sanders, and DL Carlos Watkins). This is also an Arizona offense that won’t put up points vs. the Cowboys — even with the injury to Trevon Diggs.
Dallas could be playing with a big lead as early as the third quarter and there is no need to punish lead-back Tony Pollard in the second half. I’ll certainly be looking for a Pollard first-half TD for plus money closer to Sunday, but Rico provides great anytime TD value in this one.
If you’re really looking for an even bigger play, Dowdle to score the last TD is listed at +2,500 on bet365. It’s 0.6 units to win three.
Rico Dowdle prop: Anytime touchdown (+500 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Moss is the man
At +210 odds, bettors can get a No. 1 back who saw all 18 RB carries for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2, appeared on the field for all but one snap, and ran an impressive 34 routes. While Anthony Richardson was vulturing some red-zone looks at first, a full game of Gardner Minshew at quarterback in Week 3 means more opportunities for Zack Moss on Sunday.
Not only did Moss take all the RB carries last week in his season debut after an arm injury set him back, but he also saw all four RB passing targets. The latter is important as the Colts are heavy dogs against the Baltimore Ravens, and the game script could potentially be more negative than positive.
Still, getting a full-load three-down back at +210 provides fantastic value. Baltimore has yet to allow a rush TD but the Colts ran for three last week, and the move to Minshew from Richardson is a lateral one for the offense as Minshew is comfortable with Shane Steichen’s offense from Philadelphia last year.
With Deon Jackson looking like a bench warmer and Evan Hull hurt, Moss is the man until further notice. It’s a one-unit play and I’d bet this to +170.
Zack Moss prop: Anytime touchdown (+210 at bet365)
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