Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 16: Swift, Gainwell Bruise Big Blue

Prop bet #1: Christmas double shot

The Eagles have stated that they want to run the ball more and last week (in neutral game script) they finished with a run rate of 55%. That was up from their season average of 46.2%, which is a Top-5 mark to begin with. Now as 13.5-point favorites and facing a Giants defense that could be without all-world defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, the Eagles have an elite rushing matchup that should lead to multiple rushing touchdowns in Week 16. 

I have no idea why people are going out and betting on Boston Scott to score at +300 when the running back had just one offensive snap last week and 10 rushing attempts over his last 10 games. Getting these D’Andre Swift odds of +155 are infinitely better.

Swift had four red-zone carries last week, which led the backfield, and he also had one target inside the 20. Kenneth Gainwell is getting carries too, but Swift is coming off his first 18-carry game in five starts and looks like the best back to score this Christmas. 

The Kenneth Gainwell odds of +500 are also worth a half unit as he had three red-zone carries last week and is being mixed into this run-first offense. This is as low as +220 in some places.

This is the best rushing matchup of the entire week and getting both of these backs at these prices is incredible value when adding in the potential game script. 

D'Andre Swift prop: Anytime TD (+155 at FanDuel)

Kenneth Gainwell: Anytime TD (+500 at BetMGM for 0.5 units)

Prop bet #2: Chuba diving

The Panthers might be a 5-point home dog this week, but it’s a safe bet that they will continue to be run-heavy as their 52% run rate over the last three weeks is the highest mark in football. 

Chuba Hubbard has 70 carries over those three games, and although he is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry, his TD opportunities are some of the best in football. Some books are as long as +140 for a score with others have the Chuba Hubbard odds as short as -105.

Since Week 12, only three other running backs have more red-zone carries, and his six touches from inside the five-yard line rank fourth in football over that stretch. He is getting 88% of the red-zone carries over the last four games and if Carolina can get in deep, it will be Hubbard’s number that's called.

The Packers are a good matchup as well, as they rank in the bottom third of the league in success rate vs. the rush. They also enter the end of the week with five starting defensive players questionable for the game. 

Carolina comes in healthy in this game and could keep this game tighter than the spread is indicating, which would favor Hubbard and the rushing game. This TD should be at +110/+105, so the +140 is an easy bet for me this week.   

Chuba Hubbard prop: Anytime TD (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Christmas winner

The Chiefs are 9-1 SU vs. the Raiders over the last 10 meetings dating back to 2018 and Patrick Mahomes and this offense have dominated their divisional foe, scoring at least 28 points in each of those games. That includes a 31-point, 350-yard performance in Vegas back in November. 

Wide receiver Rashee Rice has blossomed into a bright spot for an underachieving receiving group. His role inside the 20 has taken off as he is tied for the WR lead in red-zone targets over the last four weeks with nine. The Rashee Rice odds are as high as +150 for a TD this week vs. a team he went for over 100 yards and a score last month. 

Kadarius Toney and Jerrick McKinnon are questionable and those are targets that could go to Rice, who has 32 catches for 334 yards and TDs in three of his last four games.

He is a threat outside the red zone but also has become a weapon in tight. This TD should be around +110. 

Rashee Rice prop: Anytime TD (+150 at bet365)