NFL Picks

Sean McVay will lean into his ground game to get the play-action pass going, especially after watching Carolina get rolled for 140 yards rushing last week against the Bucs and after LA amassed 152 yards on the ground in their Week 13 meeting. Corum has been getting steady reps since Week 9. He’s has 11 or more carries in six of his last 10 games and gone for 40-plus rushing yards in seven of those outings. Big spread paints a game script of the Rams protecting a lead late and if this does become a blowout, second-teamers like Corum get extra love. 

Since that 31-point effort against the Rams (helped along by two interceptions and a pick-six), the Panthers have puttered along with offensive outputs of 10, 14, 17, and 23.

Los Angeles has issues in the secondary but faces a much tamer passing offense from Carolina, with QB Bryce Young passing for more than 200 yards just twice in the last six outings.

The Rams offense will lean into the run game after watching Tampa Bay march for 140 yards in a winning/losing effort versus Carolina in Week 18. Los Angeles rushed for 152 yards against the Panthers in Week 13. That will keep gains shorter and the clock ticking.

This is a Top-5 attack in terms of EPA per play since Week 12, with a two-headed monster forming at running back (D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai) and really giving Ben Johnson’s playbook dimension. Chicago grinded for 99 yards or more on the ground in the six games prior to Week 18’s flop against the Lions. The Bears topped 130 rushing yards in four of those games, including 138 and 150 yards in two matchups with Green Bay. Winning the war on the turf makes life easier for everyone in Chitown. Those gains on the ground set up for shorter third downs, activate Johnson’s vaunted play-action schemes, make the Packers’ soft secondary vulnerable to random deep shots, and chew up possession which in turn boosts the Bears’ defense and forces Green Bay to be one-dimensional with limited offensive touches.

The Green Bay Packers may pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see just 127.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.. Josh Jacobs's 14.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for RBs.. This year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has given up a massive 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the largest rate in the league.. The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the most TDs through the air in the league to RBs: 0.29 per game this year.

The Jaguars enter the postseason on fire, but I'm not sold on this inexperienced team beating a Bills squad that has made several deep playoff runs. Since their bye in Week 9, the Jags rank just 29th in rush success rate with Travis Etienne averaging 3.6 yards per carry. They won't be able to take advantage of Buffalo's piss-poor run defense. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville's defense has been heavily reliant on forcing turnovers. However, the Bills' explosive offense takes care of the ball, and Josh Allen will pick apart a mediocre Jags secondary.

Josh Allen is the ultimate X-factor and the most dangerous QB the Jags have faced all season. This Buffalo offensive line is also elite and can win the war in the trenches against a solid Jacksonville defense. Defensively, Jacksonville’s strength is the run stop. It ranks No. 4 in Run Defense DVOA and No. 3 in opponent success rate per handoff. That could bottle up RB James Cook and force both offenses to take to the air this weekend. While the Bills aren’t at home in the Wild Card Round, this trip to Duval County offers a rare warm weather outing. The extended forecast for Sunday afternoon looks clear, which will boost production after Buffalo was locked in cold outdoor venues since Week 13. The Bills have also gone 8-3-1 Over/Under in postseason games since 2020.

A quick peek at San Francisco's schedule shows the Niners haven’t been able to score their way to wins against quality defenses, with four of their five losses coming against teams ranking seventh or higher in defensive DVOA. The Eagles are sixth in the metric while allowing the ninth-lowest EPA per play and fifth-fewest points per game (19.1). San Francisco hasn’t been a defensive juggernaut, either, finishing 27th in defensive DVOA while allowing the ninth-highest EPA per play. Given their bounty of weapons and a solid offensive line that could receive a boost in left tackle Lane Johnson (foot), the Eagles will find success on offense.

The Eagles opened as 5-point home favorites in the Wild Card round, but the defending Super Bowl champs have been overrated all year. The Eagles 3-3 in their last six games against teams with a winning record, with only one of those victories coming by more than a field goal. San Francisco finished the regular season with one more win than Philly, despite facing a tougher schedule, and is also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings. Kyle Shanahan and an explosive 49ers' offense will be able to keep things competitive here.

The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season. That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault. As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards. With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.. The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Despite how it got in, Pittsburgh is in. And hosting a Houston team in one of the toughest venues in all of sports. Acrisure Stadium will undoubtedly be loud and cold, with temperatures that “feel like” sub-freezing Monday night. The Texans are all about that defense, entering the postseason with the top ranked stop unit in the land. But in order to cover the spread, you need to put some points on the board. That’s been challenging for C.J. Stroud & Co. – at least when venturing into the great outdoors. Houston averages less than 22 points per game in open-air venues and only 19.8 points per road game on the year – a 7.5-point slide compared to its production at home. Stroud is notoriously an “indoor cat”, with his career passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt all taking a nosedive outside. 

The Houston defense is the best unit in this game, and I’m confident Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can lead the offense to enough points to cover the number Monday night. Stroud ranked 10th in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the seventh-most air yards and a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt across the final six weeks of the regular season, after all. For comparison, Steelers vet Aaron Rogders ranked 19th and 20th in the two metrics while throwing for 6.5 YPA during the same stretch, and now he faces the second-ranked scoring defense in football.