The Houston Texans meet the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium for an AFC Divisional Round showdown on Sunday afternoon with a trip to the Championship Round at stake.
If you're looking to make Texans vs. Patriots predictions and don't have access to a sportsbook, then prediction markets like Kalshi are for you!
From spreads and totals to player props, there's a whole slew of NFL picks to be made at Kalshi.
Texans vs Patriots predictions
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Patriots to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| Patriots -3.5 — YES | Trade at Kalshi |
| Over 40.5 — NO | Trade at Kalshi |
| Woody Marks to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
| Rhamondre Stevenson to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
Who will win Texans vs Patriots at prediction markets?
Our prediction: Patriots to win
Neil Parker believes the Patriots will beat the Texans handily.
"In addition to the highlighted surge from the New England offense, the Pats have also ranked seventh in defensive DVOA during the same stretch and won 15 of their last 17 games (+16.55 Units / 31% ROI). I also expect Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offense to struggle without Collins."
See more of Neil's analysis in his Texans vs. Patriots predictions.
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Texans vs Patriots props at prediction markets
Beyond the winner of the game, there are several other markets available for Texans vs. Patriots at Kalshi, including the spread, total, and team total for the game, plus player touchdown props and quarterback passing markets.
Explain how you can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on New England -3.5 means the Patriots will cover, while "No" on New England -3.5 means the Texans will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter)
Texans vs Patriots spread and total at prediction markets
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots -3.5 | 48¢ (-118) | 53¢ (-104) |
| Over 41.5 | 47¢ (-118) | 55¢ (-104) |
Our predictions: Patriots -3.5 (YES) and Over 41.5 (NO)
With New England pacing the NFL in offensive DVOA dating back to Week 14 of the regular season, there's confidence that Drake Maye’s mobility can offset the Houston pass rush in our Texans vs. Patriots predictions.
This total is a little too high given the strength of these two defenses, and the likelihood of both teams looking to establish the run and limit offensive mistakes. Of course, these two teams combined to allow just nine points in the Wild Card Round.
There are also alternate spreads and totals to consider at Kalshi.
Texans vs Patriots touchdown props at prediction markets
| Player | Anytime TD | First TD |
|---|---|---|
 Woody Marks |
38¢ (+155) | 10¢ (+750) |
 Rhamondre Stevenson |
37¢ (+155) | 11¢ (+700) |
| Hunter Henry |
33¢ (+190) | 10¢ (+850) |
| Stefon Diggs |
32¢ (+200) | 9¢ (+900) |
| TreVeyon Henderson |
30¢ (+220) | 8¢ (+1100) |
| Dalton Schultz |
29¢ (+220) | 7¢ (+1100) |
| Christian Kirk |
26¢ (+270) | 7¢ (+1300) |
| Drake Maye |
22¢ (+320) | 6¢ (+1400) |
Our predictions: Jayden Higgins and Hunter Henry
Quinn Allen's Texans vs. Patriots anytime touchdown picks believe that Jayden Higgins will be incredibly busy in the Texans offense & that will increase his chances of scoring a touchdown.
The New England Patriots have truly been firing on all cylinders this season, and Hunter Henry has played an important part in their success. The tight end is second on the team in receptions behind only Stefon Diggs, registering 60 catches for 768 and a team-leading seven touchdowns.
Don't forget to check out Kalshi's first TD and multi TD props!
Other Texans vs Patriots props available at prediction markets
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on Texans vs Patriots at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
